My suggested ante-post bets for tomorrow’s Randox Grand National (4 p.m.) have featured prominently in this column for several weeks now. The good news is that these wagers are looking promising.
My three long-term tips for the big Aintree spectacle were all put up at juicy prices that are long gone. My fourth Grand National bet, Desertmore House has – as I feared – narrowly failed to make the cut but that was NRNB (Non Runner No Bet), so there is no harm to anyone’s bank balance.
So what of the chances of my three selections tomorrow now that the ground is likely to ride very soft?
Mahler Mission, put up each way at 20-1 late last year, has not had a typical Grand National preparation in that he has not run since coming second in the Coral Gold Cup more than four months ago. However, that’s entirely the choice of connections – they think the horse is best fresh – rather than because of any setback.
The form of that run at Newbury is solid and it can be upgraded because Mahler Mission lost his two front shoes during the race and his preparation for it did not go entirely to plan. He’s a strong stayer, sound jumper and goes to Aintree tomorrow with every chance.
Vanillier, put up each way at 16-1, was second in last year’s Grand National after being held up at the back of the field and ridden as though his jockey was worried he might not stay. However, he ran on strongly to the line that day. I hope he will be ridden more prominently tomorrow and, since he should also be fine on the ground, he has a decent chance too.
Panda Boy, put up each way at 40-1, would be the best result for both my bank balance and this column. I am sure he would prefer better ground but, having said that, he has run adequately enough on going with plenty of cut. His shrewd trainer Martin Brassil will have had this race in mind all season and so I am hoping he runs a massive race.
There are, of course, dangers a-plenty headed by last year’s winner Corach Rambler, who is likely to go off favourite tomorrow after his splendid third in this year’s Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Kitty’s Light, who is another horse that would prefer quicker ground, is a mare that I love and victory for her would provide the best story for the media, given that the daughter of trainer Christian Williams has been suffering from leukaemia for over a year. No one in racing would begrudge Betsy, aged 6, and her family a day to remember.
I have already put up two horses each way, both at 16-1, for today’s Randox-sponsored Topham Handicap Chase (4.05 p.m.). Young Darling and Arizona Cardinal both have chances in another very open contest. However, both have drifted in the betting over the past 24 hours which is never an encouraging sign.
I am going to put up one more horse at a big price for today’s racing: MIGHT I in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle (2.20 p.m.). Harry Fry’s eight-year-old gelding has been disappointing this season. First, he failed to take to chasing and then, when returned to hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival, he made a horrendous mistake at the fifth obstacle, before finishing 13th of the 21 runners in the Coral Cup.
If Might I again makes major jumping errors, he will not win today but this horse will love the soft ground at he is well handicapped now off a mark of just 140. Back him each way at 18-1 with Paddy Power, paying six places.
I am going to stay loyal to another of my Cheltenham fancies tomorrow in the Grade 1 My Pension Expert Maghull Novices’ Chase (Aintree 5 p.m.). LIBBERTY HUNTER was second in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup last month after looking like the winner going to the second last.
I was disappointed he did not win that day off a lovely mark of 139 and he has plenty to find on official figures tomorrow. However, I think he is an improving horse, even at the age of eight, and his trainer, Evan Williams, does not run his horses in Grade 1 races unless he thinks they are up to it. Back him each way at 12-1 Coral, paying three places.
Moving on to later in the month, I am hoping that DESERTMORE HOUSE missing the cut for the Grand National could be a blessing in disguise for connections. It means he can take up his entry in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on April 27 when the ground should be better than it will be at Aintree tomorrow.
I feel sure that Martin Brassil’s gelding is going to land a big staying handicap at some point and I hope it comes in a fortnight’s time. Back him at 25-1 with Paddy Power, Betfair or BetVictor, all offering four places.
Finally, northern handler Rebecca Menzies has her horses in sparkling form and she has always thought a great deal of her staying chaser, TWOSHOTSOFTEQUILA. He has pretty much improved with every run this season with the exception of when he disappointed in the SBK Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase in January.
Twoshotsoftequila swerved a possible engagement at Aintree this weekend, probably because of the very soft ground. I think he could make a big impression if now aimed at next weekend’s Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr. He would be trying a new trip but he looks to be a dour stayer in the making and so take the 25-1 each way with almost all bookies, but make sure it is one of those offering five places not four.
As always, the big hope for tomorrow’s big race is that all horses and riders come back safe and sound – something all the more likely now that the size of the field has been reduced from 40 to 34 for the first time.
Pending:
1 point each way Your Darling at 16-1 for the Topham Chase, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Arizona Cardinal at 16-1 for the Topham Chase, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Might I at 18-1 for the William Hill Handicap Hurdle, 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Panda Boy at 40-1 for the Randox Grand National, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Libberty Hunter at 12-1 for the Maghull Novices’ Chase, 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Git Maker at 14-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Twoshotsoftequila at 25-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Threeunderthrufive at 20-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Desertmore House at 25-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, 1/5th odds, 4 places.
There were no settled bets from last weekend.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 38.61 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
- My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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