Like most fathers, I occasionally offer words of advice to my children even if they choose not to take them. Over the years, I have often told my two (now grown-up) daughters: ‘judge a person on how he or she accepts bad news’. My thinking is that pretty much anyone can be charming and generous-spirited when they receive good news, but it takes a really strong, admirable character to be equally magnanimous and upbeat when they have to deal with really unwelcome news.
Trainer Ed Bethell recently passed this quirky little test of mine in glowing style. He had to inform the press that Mickley, his first and only Royal Ascot winner – incidentally tipped in this column when he won in June – would continue his career in Hong Kong. Some trainers might have hinted that their owners were ungrateful, even greedy, for selling the horse, while others would have bemoaned the size of prize money in Britain (in Hong Kong prize money is much better). That’s not Bethell’s style and, hiding his disappointment, he simply said of Mickley: ‘He’s done his job, he won at Royal Ascot, it was our first winner there for us and unfortunately in this world we’ve got to sell.’
How classy is that? Furthermore, Bethell is a really talented young trainer who is going to be around for many decades to come and he will undoubtedly land many more big races with his ever-improving string. When it comes to the current Ebor meeting at York, Bethell is aiming most of his best horses at one of the races over the four days because he trains in North Yorkshire and his local owners love little more than a winner at the track. So far the signs are that Bethell’s horses are in top form: of his four runners at the first two days of this York meeting, three made the frame – all fourth, in fact, in big-field handicaps, one of them at odds of 33-1.
However, I am hoping Bethell has an even better final two days at the track, today and tomorrow, because I fancy no less than three of his horses to run well. Starting in the last race at York today, the Sky Bet Mile Handicap (5.20 p.m.), I am sweet on the chances of PABORUS, a talented three-year-old gelding who won twice in May and since then has been given a nice break to strengthen up further.
Bethell said of his charge in a recent attheraces.com stable tour: ‘I was keen to give him a break following his two novice wins earlier in the year. He’s a big, raw horse who would have had an ideal profile for the Britannia, but Royal Ascot would have come too soon for him. He’s a better horse than Mickley who won that for me.’
Encouraging words indeed especially as Mickley won his Royal Ascot handicap off a mark of 90, the very same mark that Paborus will race off today on his handicap debut. Sadly, the double figure prices available yesterday have long gone but back the horse each way at 15/2 with Sky Bet, paying six places.
Paborus is my only suggested bet today. In the Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (3.35 p.m.). Asfoora can reverse the Glorious Goodwood form with Big Evs on 4 lbs better terms for a short head, and with the ground still riding on the firm side of good. However, odds of little better than evens for this tough Australian mare are terribly skinny and I won’t be having a financial interest in this competitive race.
In tomorrow’s big race, the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (3.35 p.m.), I have already put up Naqeeb each way at 16-1 and, with the fast ground in his favour, I hope he will run a big race despite trainer Willliam Haggas’s horses failing to fire so far at York this week
However, I have hoped all season that Bethell’s runner CHILLINGHAM would line up in the Ebor, which I think will be the perfect test for him. In recent weeks, his handler had hoped to find a handicap for Chillingham to win in order to guarantee his place in Ebor courtesy of being re-handicapped or carrying a penalty – but the ground has been too quick for the horse most of the summer.
As luck would have it though, Chillingham has crept into the Ebor without any need for a revised mark and off a lovely official rating of just 96. Yes, he would definitely like the ground softer but he did win on good to firm as a three-year-old so he is not totally ground dependent.
Chillingham’s best run of his career came over this trip 14 months ago when he was fourth in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot despite a slow start and then pulling too hard. He could still figure prominently in this race if allowed to take his chance on less-than-ideal ground and so back him each way at 20-1 with the likes of bet365, Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfair, all paying six places.
There are dangers all over the place in this race, including the Irish-trained trio of Queenstown, Hipop De Loire and My Mate Mozzie, while the David O’Meara 40-1 shot Iron Lion could well outrun his odds too.
In the final race of tomorrow’s card, I like two horses so I will go in double handed. Every time I see the name OVIEDO on a racecard, I think of his near miss in last year’s bet365 Cambridgeshire at Newmarket when drawn in the worst stall, berth 1, he almost landed the race only to be beaten by three horses drawn 35, 25 and 28. If you are able to watch a replay of the race, see for yourself just how unlucky the horse was not to win.
After two lacklustre performances this season, Oviedo can race off a mark 1 lbs lower than in the Cambridgeshire when he runs in the Sky Bet Finale Handicap (5.20 p.m.). Furthermore, his trainer said in his recent attheraces.com stable tour: ‘I have no doubt that he retains all his class. You can draw a line through his run in the Huxley Stakes at Chester and the ground went against him at York.’
Once again, encouraging words so back Oviedo each way at 17-2 with William Hill, paying five places. In the same race, I am backing DUAL IDENTITY from the William Knight yard. This horse would, like Chillingham, probably prefer softer ground but he is not totally ground dependent either. This six-year-old gelding does not win as often as he should but his last run at Glorious Goodwood, when fifth after a slow start and with trouble in running, was a really good one.
With his hold-up style, Dual Identity will always need luck in running but Callum Shepherd gets on well with him so back the horse at 11-1 with Sky Bet, paying six places.
That’s it from me for this week. We have had some near misses over the past seven days but I was pleased to see Ghostwriter run so well on Wednesday when he finally got his ideal fast ground over a trip of just over a mile and a quarter in the Group 1 International Juddmonte Stakes. The race ended up being so hot that Ghostwriter drifted to as big as 40-1 shortly before the off so hopefully some each way thieves, like me, went in again on the day.
Pending:
1 point each way Paborus at 17-2 for the Sky Bet Mile Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Naqeeb at 16-1 for the Ebor Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Chillingham at 20-1 for the Ebor Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Oviedo at 17-2 for the Sky Bet Finale Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dual Identity at 11-1 for the Sky Bet Finale Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
Last weekend and earlier this week + 2 points.
1 point each way Wobwobwob at 10-1 for the Great St Wilfred Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 7 places. 5th. + 1 point.
2 points win Witch Hunter at 5-1 for the Hungerford Stakes. 2nd. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ghostwriter at 20-1 for the Juddmonte Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
2024 flat season running total + 8.4 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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