I have already put up two horses ante-post for today’s Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow (2.50 p.m.) and with mixed results. Monbeg Genius, tipped each way at 20-1 last month, has been steadily backed ever since and, until this morning, was vying for favouritism. Manofthepeople, tipped each way a week ago at 50-1, has not been declared for the race and so that bet is lost.
If Monbeg Genius jumps well and runs to the best form that he has displayed over the past two seasons, he will win. His close third to Corach Rambler in the March 2023 running of the Ultima Chase has proved to be elite handicap form and Jonjo and A.J. O’Neill’s eight-year-old gelding is only 4 lbs higher in the official ratings than he was for that race at the Cheltenham Festival.
However, Monbeg Genius is not guaranteed to reproduce that form and he has almost doubled in price this morning which is never a good sign. So I am going to put up another horse in the race at a price. There was a lot to like about THE NEWEST ONE’s seasonal debut at Cheltenham in October when he beat 17 rivals.
That run showed he can handle a big field and he was staying on strongly at the end of that three miles one furlong contest suggesting today’s marathon trip of three miles six furlongs should suit him well. Furthermore, he has winning form at Chepstow and that’s a massive plus as some horses simply don’t handle the course, especially when the ground is testing.
No Hubs No Hoobs would be the best story for the race because it would mean trainer Joe Tizzard winning the race that is run in honour of his late sister, Kim Gingell. The horse looks like he has been laid out for this race.
So, too, does Atlanta Brave, trained by Kerry Lee, who is another handler who likes to target this prize. He has been backed off the boards this morning and is now joint favourite at around 8-1.
However, especially as the ground continues to dry, The Newest One makes more appeal agt the odds – even though, like Monbeg Genius, he has been a big drifter this morning. Back him 1 point each way at 18-1 with Unibet, paying five places.
Over on the other side of the Irish Sea, the big handicap today is the Paddy Power Chase (Leopardstown, 3 p.m.). Twenty-eight horses are due to line up for this three-mile contest and no less of ten of them are trained by Willie Mullins.
My preference though is for the two hoses trained by the ultra-shrewd Irish handler Martin Brassil. Panda Boy certainly has a shout but, at bigger odds, I am backing Brassil’s other runner, DESERTMORE HOUSE. This nine-year-old gelding might still be an Aintree Grand National contender if he goes up a few pounds in the official ratings over the next two months.
Desertmore House was a distant eighth in this race a year ago after drifting in the betting. He is better than he showed that day especially on this sounder surface. Back him each way at 11-1 with SkyBet, paying a generous seven places, rather than with other bookies offering a point more but less places.
Tomorrow’s best fare is at Newbury where The New Lion is likely to go off a warm favourite in the Grade 1 Coral Challow Novices’ Hurdle (2.55 p.m.). Highly rated by trainer Dan Skelton, he could be a special horse but 13-8 is a skinny price for a race of this nature.
Furthermore, he is only rated on the same official mark of 136 as Jonjo and A.J. O’Neill’s BILL JOYCE, who is also an improving novice hurdler.This five-year-old gelding is two wins from two runs this season and was particularly impressive when winning at Sandown earlier this month.
Bill Joyce is a chaser in the making but he can continue to make his mark over hurdles this season. With only two places on offer and Regent’s Stroll to contend with too, back him 2 points win at 9-2 with William Hill.
The race before the Challow is also competitive – the ten-runner Coral Mandarin Handicap Chase (2.20 p.m.) run over three miles two furlongs. After their high-profile double at Kempton yesterday, the Ben Pauling/Ben Jones trainer/jockey combination could land another big chase in the shape of HENRY’S FRIEND.
This seven-year-old gelding was going well in the Coral Gold Cup last month before almost uprooting the 14th fence so, in the circumstances, he did well to finish a close fifth to Kandoo Kid.
Henry’s Friend proved his liking for the course, the distance and good to soft ground that day and so back him 2 points win as well, this time at 5-1 with Paddy Power.
I thought yesterday’s Boxing Day racing, particularly at Kempton, was outstanding entertainment for racing enthusiasts and there is more good racing to look forward to at Cheltenham and other tracks on New Year’s Day. A very happy New Year to all readers of this column.
Pending:
1 point each way Monbeg Genius at 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way The Newest One at 18-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Desertmore House at 11-1 for the Paddy Power Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 7 places.
2 points win Henry’s Friend at 5-1 for the Mandarin Handicap Chase.
2 points win Bill Joyce at 9-2 for the Challow Hurdle.
Last weekend: – 6 points
1 point each way Percussion at 14-1 for the Tommy Whittle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Secret Squirrel at 6-1 for the Ladbrokes Hurdle. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthepeople at 50-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Non runner. – 2 points.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 26.3 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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