Aidan O’Brien’s Kyprios is likely to go off at close to even-money favourite for today’s big race, the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup (4.25 p.m). He was absent at Royal Ascot last year after a setback but won the Gold Cup the previous year and it is understandable that he is at the top of the market.
However, I can’t help feeling that he is a really poor price given the level of the opposition and the fact he is not even officially the top-rated horse in the race. That honour narrowly goes to Trawlerman who beat Kyprios off level weights at Ascot in October in the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup.
Father-and-son trainers John and Thady Gosden have their string in good form this week and, with William Buick booked for the ride, it was tempting to put up Trawlerman as my bet in the race.
However, I am going to side with another runner in the race for the Gosdens, the up-and-coming four-year-old colt GREGORY ridden by James Doyle. He is taking the same route as the stable’s Stradivarius did several years ago, winning the Queen’s Vase before tackling the Gold Cup the following season.
Gregory is untried over this marathon trip of two miles four furlongs but he finishes off his races as though he will relish stepping up in distance. Back him each way at 11/2 with bet365, paying three places and Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG).
My strongest fancy today is Ed Bethell’s MICKLEY in the Britannia Stakes (5.05 p.m.). The North Yorkshire trainer said over the close season that this horse was ‘open to vast improvement’ and is ‘probably my most impressive horse’. Mickley steps up in trip today but one mile on the straight course should be just what he needs to show his best form.
After winning two modest races at Southwell and Doncaster, this huge horse is upped significantly in class today and he has no less than 29 rivals up against him. With only four places on offer in such a big field, I am going to be brave and suggest a two points win bet, rather than each way. Take the 9-1 bet365 which has BOG again.
The only other races I am having a bet in today is another ‘impossible’ handicap, the Buckingham Palace Stakes (6.15 p.m.) over seven furlongs. Trainer Ed Walker’s English Oak is probably the right favourite but odds of less than 5-1 in a red-hot 29-runner race make zero appeal.
Instead, I will go in double handed with one horse from drawn on each side of the track. GORAK ran in this race last year and finished a modest 12th but he had blown his chances of winning by running too well earlier in the month in a Group 3 race at Haydock. Although only fourth in that Haydock contest that saw his rating leap from 86 to 105 for Royal Ascot.
Today Gorak is down on a much more realistic mark of 96. His trainer Charlie Fellowes loves nothing better than Ascot winners, in general, and Royal Ascot winners, in particular.
It’s impossible to know if stall three is going to be favourable or not, but back Gorak each way at 20-1 with bet365, paying six places and BOG.
On the other side of the track, drawn in berth 30, is FRESH, who loves Ascot and has won at the track three times. James Fanshawe’s seven-year-old gelding is also down to a nice mark of 92 now having once been running off 103. Experienced jockey Hayley Turner rides Ascot well and so back him each way at 11-1 with bet365, again paying six places and BOG.
I will be back tomorrow morning – day four – with my suggestions for more Royal Ascot wagers.
Pending:
1 point each way Gregory at 11-2 for the Ascot Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
2 points win Mickley at 9-1 for the Britannia Stakes.
1 point each way Gorak at 20-1 for the Buckingham Palace Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Fresh at 11-1 for the Buckingham Palace Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Jasour at 11-1 in the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Isle of Jura at 12-1 in the Hardwicke Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Shartash at 10-1 in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Yesterday: – 4.4 points
1 point each way Miss Rascal at 8-1 for the Queen Mary Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 5th. + 0.6 points.
1 point each way Alflaila at 8-1 in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Bless Him at 20-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Perotto at 20-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 8 places. + 3 points.
1 point each way Azahara Palace at 25-1 in the Kensington Palace Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Elim at 33-1 in the Kensington Palace Stakes, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2024 flat season running total – 6.9 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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