Cheltenham’s November meeting is, as usual, a meeting to savour and I am looking forward to my first visit to the Cotswold track this season when I attend tomorrow’s seven-race card.
I put up two tips for tomorrow’s big race, the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 p.m.), last week and I was pleased to see that both horses were declared yesterday. There are dangers aplenty but I have nothing to add other than it’s a question of the more rain the better for Fugitif and that would suit Notlongtillmay well enough too.
I was sorely tempted to put up an old favourite of mine, Gin Coco, for the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday (3.30 p.m.). Usually super consistent, there was a genuine reason for his poor show in the McCoy Contractors County Hurdle at the Festival in March as he returned with a fractured pelvis.
Apparently fully recovered, he ran an encouraging prep race at Ffos Las last month behind both Nemean Lion and Anyharminasking. Gin Coco was second in the Greatwood last year and remains well handicapped on that form. However, my worry is the going – he is definitely better on good ground and, with heavy rain forecast over the next 24 hours, it could be properly soft ground come the off on Sunday.
On balance, my narrow preference is for L’EAU DU SUD for the Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton trainer/jockey combination. The two brothers love to target these big handicap hurdles and I am convinced that this five-year-old grey gelding can improve on the promising form that he showed last season, notably when third in the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso, behind Benson.
L’Eau Du Sud, who had good form on heavy ground in France as a three and four-year-old, will relish any more rain. Back him 2 points win at 7-1 with bet365.
I have got two ante-post fancies for races later this year, and also my first wager on a horse at next year’s Cheltenham Festival so, for those who are willing to be patient for a long-term investment, it is time to put on those betting boots.
Looking ahead to next weekend, I think my old friend, CORACH RAMBLER, trained by Lucinda Russell andput up at 20-1 in this column to win the Grand National last season, is overpriced for the Betfair Chase at Haydock in eight days’ time.
It’s true his seasonal debut at Kelso was pretty disappointing and it’s equally true that this nine-year-old gelding might just be one of those horses who is better in big-field handicaps run at a true pace.
Having said that, I expect the Betfair Chase to cut up and the current field of 15 runners could well be down to seven or less come the off. Connections insist Corach Rambler will run in this race rather than wait for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, a contest in which the stable is more likely to be represented by Ahoy Senor.
So back Corach Rambler each way at 14-1, three places, with bet365 or SkyBet, for the Betfair Chase, even though the favourite, Protektorat, will be very hard to beat.
The entries were made earlier this week for my favourite handicap chase of the season, the Coral Welsh Grand National. Lightly-raced until now, IRON BRIDGE has been on my radar for this race throughout the close season because he is a dour stayer who loves soft ground.
I would have preferred him to run better on his only visit to Chepstow, which took place 11 months ago and when he was a distant fifth of the nine runners. However, there was clearly something amiss that day.
He is much better than he showed at the course last December and he is likely to run in the Welsh Grand National trial at Chepstow before tackling the big one on 27 December. Back Iron Bridge each way at 16-1 with bet365 or William Hill.
His stablemate, Monbeg Genius, is favourite for the Welsh Grand National but he seems much more likely to go for the Coral Cup at Newbury and, eventually, the Aintree National.
Last but not least, an ante-post bet for the Cheltenham Festival on which I rarely bet before the New Year. However, I can’t resist backing another Lucinda Russell horse even at this very early stage.
Step forward the super-promising GIOVINCO, a six-year-old gelding who has won five of his last six races and who is being aimed at just one race in March next year, the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase on Wednesday 13 March.
Giovinco unseated his rider after stumbling on landing on his chasing debut at Carlisle last month but he then put that unfortunate experience behind him when trotting up in a four-horse handicap at Aintree last weekend.
That form is nothing exceptional, yet he already has a fairly lofty official rating for a novice chaser of 147 and I expect that to increase into the early 150s before the Festival if he is as good as I, and more importantly his connections, think he is. Crucially, he does not seem ground dependent having won on terrains varying from heavy to good.
Russell, who knows her geese from her swans, described her charge as ‘a phenomenal horse’ in her stable tour for the Racing Post earlier this week. I realise he will have to beat the very best staying novice chasers from Ireland and Britain but he really could be up to it.
Back Giovinco each way at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory with bet365, Ladbrokes or Coral, and then hope that he stays injury free and continues on his upward curve for the next four months.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Fugitif at 11-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Notlongtillmay at 14-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
2 points win L’Eau Du Sud at 7-1 for the Greatwood Hurdle.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 14-1 for the Betfair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Iron Bridge at 16-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
Settled bets from last week:
1 point each way The Big Breakaway at 7-1 for the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Fantastic Lady at 10-1 for the Grand Sefton, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Percussion at 20-1 for the Grand Sefton, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 4 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: quits.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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