Richard Hobson is a trainer that I have a lot of time for. He always gets the best out of his small string and he is always willing to share information with journalists about the well-being of his horses and their big-race targets. He places his horses well too, even if it means going to the other side of the English Channel in search of better prize money.
Hobson’s stable star FUGITIF is due to make his seasonal debut a week from tomorrow in the highly-competitive Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham’s November meeting.
This eight-year-old gelding ticks a lot of boxes for this contest, notably he has strong form over the course and distance of the race. Furthermore, Fugitif is very likely to get his favoured soft or heavy ground because plenty of rain has fallen on the course over the past fortnight and more is forecast throughout next week.
This horse goes well fresh and his handler, who trains locally near Cheltenham, is convinced this formidable looking 17.2 hands beast has grown into his massive frame over the summer and is now stronger than ever.
Fugitif also goes well fresh, so there are lots of reasons to hope for a big run next weekend. ‘I can’t wait to run the horse. We are excited to be starting off his season’, says Hobson, who currently has 15 horses in his care.
The trainer hopes Gavin Sheehan will be available to take the ride. Hobson has also given Fugitif a speculative entry in the Grade 1 King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day so he must think his horse is capable of even more this season.
The negatives about the horse are that Fugitif has gone up a lot in the ratings since the start of last season as a result of a series of fine runs. He began the last campaign off a mark of 131 and finished it off 153. He also disappointed on his final run of the season at Aintree but he was over the top by then after some hard races, including being runner-up in the Magners Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival.
On balance, back Fugitif each way at 11-1 with Coral and Ladbrokes, both paying four places.
In such a competitive race, however, I want to go in double-handed and my other fancy in the race is another course and distance specialist who was also runner-up in a Festival race in March. NOTLONGTILLMAY defied odds of 40-1 to be second to Stage Star in the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase.
Put away for the season after that fine run, Laura Morgan’s seven-year-old gelding ran a fine prep race for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham late last month when a close fourth to Dancing On My Own over an inadequate trip of two miles. The extra four furlongs of next weekend’s race will be right up his street.
Morgan has complicated things by also entering another of her progressive horses, Whistleinthedark, in the race, but, if they both take their chances, I would be surprised if he can beat his stablemate despite receiving 8lbs. Back Notlongtillmay each way at 14-1 with bet365, paying four places.
The other big handicap next weekend is the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday November 19. However, my main fancy for this race has a preference for good ground, which he is unlikely to get in nine days’ time. So I will keep my powder dry on this race and assess it in a week’s time.
I am very happy with my two bets put up last week in the BoyleSports Grand Sefton at Aintree tomorrow (2.45pm). The race has, as I predicted, cut up and both my tips, Percussion and Fantastic Lady, are half the prices they were a week ago. The race was given the green light this morning after an inspection of the National course.
I am also putting up a tip in tomorrow’s Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Wincanton, 2.25pm). THE BIG BREAKAWAY has always been a horse with real talent and is a favourite of mine. The trouble is he has two ways of running, essentially: very good and…very bad.
His first two runs of last season were excellent when he was runner-up in two decent races, notably the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow behind The Two Amigos. His form then tailed off for the rest of the season, being pulled up in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and falling at only the second fence in the Randox Grand National at Aintree.
If The Big Breakaway puts his best put foot forward tomorrow, he is more than capable on landing this £40,000-plus first prize, especially on his favoured soft ground. Back him each way at 7-1 with William Hill, offering four places.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way The Big Breakaway at 7-1 for the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Fantastic Lady at 10-1 for the Grand Sefton, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Percussion at 20-1 for the Grand Sefton, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Fugitif at 11-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Notlongtillmay at for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
There were no settled bets from last week.
2023-4 jump seasons: no runners, as yet.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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