Fox would lead anti-coalition Tories

So far, the Prime Minister seems to be playing down any potential fallout from the crisis dogging Liam Fox. No 10 seems to be saying “if the Defence Secretary goes, it won’t be such a big issue”. Much remains to be seen about the Defence Secretary’s career – and he may survive the crisis that is currently engulfing him. But it looks increasingly hard for him.

Evidence is emerging daily that Adam Werritty was somehow a member of the Defence Secretary’s team, closer to Fox even than junior ministers. And there may be more trips to be uncovered and more meetings that he joined. He was, for example, spotted at the Tory conference last week.

To survive the next 48 hours, Fox will need to show enormous contrition at the despatch box. Before answering any Defence Questions tomorrow, Fox will have to apologise for any errors of judgement – even before Ursula Brennan’s report has been finalised. The House can actually be quite a forgiving place, but only if people show contrition for wrongdoings. If people try to barge through the problems they face, attitudes tend to harden. Liam Fox is a bruiser, a barger, and it remains to be seen if he can find it in himself to be contrite. So far, he has batted away all the accusations. But to survive he may need to change his strategy.
 
If he does not survive, however, it would have a real impact on British politics. First, it will of course lead to a Cabinet reshuffle – though the Prime Minister is likely to try to limit its scope. This will get the most attention in the press, but much more important will be the impact on Labour. If they claim Liam Fox’s scalp, Ed Miliband will feel emboldened for the first time since Labour lost the election. It is exactly the kind of boost that the Labour leader would love to get, especially after his own reshuffle. It will also solidify Jim Murphy’s position in the party further, following his success at Labour’s conference.
 
But what would be the government’s first high-profile resignation could herald something far more dangerous for No 10 than a confidence boost to Labour – namely, the solidification of the rightwing caucus inside the Conservative Party. So far, right-wingers have lacked a leader. Mark Pritchard shouts loudly, but has few followers. David Davis is respected, but is an iconoclast. Liam Fox, however, has the reputation and views – on Europe, Labour, the Welfare State, and even the Prime Minister – to make him a leader of the anti-Coalition movement inside the Tory Party.
 
It will not be straightforward – the 2010 intake are less loyal to the older generation of Tory politicians. And it would all depend on how Fox goes in the end – whether he is forced to resign as a result of incriminating evidence, chooses to go because the pressure becomes too great for him to carry our his duties and/or shows a modicum of contrition in the process. Either way, the next 48 hours will not only determine Liam Fox’s future or even the future of the Ministry of Defence, but also the shape of British politics.