It has been a bad few days for Volodymyr Zelensky. The president of Ukraine must have covered his face with his hands as he watched Joe Biden’s rambling performance against Donald Trump in last week’s televised debate. Trump’s view on Ukraine’s war with Russia are well-known: he wants an end to the conflict
Then came the results from the first round of the parliamentary elections in France. There is still a second round to play but one thing is certain: the next government will not be one of Emmanuel Macron’s choice. His political project – what he described as ‘neither left nor right’ – is dead, and so to all intents and purposes is his presidency. In office but not in power.
Instead, the next parliament will be dominated by MPs from Jean-Luc Melenchon’s left-wing coalition and Marine Le Pen’s right-wing union. They have hardly anything in common, except one thing: like Trump, they also want an end to the war in Ukraine. ‘A peace without winner or loser, with mutual security guarantees,’ was how Melenchon recently said he’d like the conflict to end.
Marine Le Pen has been a fierce critic of Macron’s support of Zelensky this year, particularly his suggestion that French troops could be sent to Ukraine. ‘Macron plays the war leader, but it is the lives of our children that he speaks about with such carelessness,’ she said in March.
The Russian media believe that a Le Pen government would be good news, claiming that her party favours ‘a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and negotiations with Russia… in contrast to Macron’s radical position.’
Opposition to the war is strongest on the left, or at least among the hard left. I first saw it when I attended a protest rally in January last year in Paris. The demonstrators were there ostensibly to express their opposition to Macron’s retirement reforms, but in pamphlets and on placards there was also hostility towards Macron’s support for Ukraine.
It was also evident a fortnight ago when I was in Paris to observe a march billed as an ‘anti-National Rally’ demo. Some were there for that reason, others came to vent their spleen against Macron and a sizeable minority were there to champion the Palestinian cause. I saw hundreds of Palestine flags but not one Ukrainian flag. The radical left newspaper I bought there explained why it opposed Macron’s support of Ukraine: the cost. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Macron has given €3.8 billion in aid to Zelensky. In February he pledged a further €3 billion for 2024, but that must now be in doubt.
When the aid package was subsequently debated in the National Assembly, Melenchon’s La France Insoumise voted against, because they were ‘opposed to France being the leader of the war camp’. They are also against the admittance of Ukraine into the EU.
Not all on the left share Melenchon’s position. Within the Popular Front coalition, the centre-left Socialist party and the Green party supported the aid package. ‘Our line is clear: we support Ukraine, we support the delivery of arms, we support Ukraine’s membership of the European Union.’
It was only three weeks ago that Macron hosted Zelensky and Biden in Paris after they had attended the commemorations for the 80th anniversary of D-Day in Normandy. The American president promised more money for his Ukraine counterpart, and Macron said he wanted Kyiv’s EU accession talks to start ‘by the end of the month’.
The French president also criticised as ‘pacifists’ those who were opposed to his support of Zelensky; he said they were imbued with the ‘spirit of defeat’.
Those defeatists are today triumphant and neither Melenchon or Le Pen is likely to allow Macron to continue his financial and material support of Ukraine.
Macron’s mistake was to believe that the people approved of his tough line towards Putin. That’s why he and his party made it the central theme of their European election campaign.
But many in France believe the war is partly responsible for the increase in food and energy prices. It’s unfortunate timing for Macron that today average gas bills will increase month-on-month by nearly 12 per cent.
The truth is that many French people are as weary of the war as they are their president.
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