It now seems almost certain that Colonel Gaddafi will now not only survive in Libya but reassert control over the whole country. With the fall of Ajdabiya, there is no break between Gaddafi’s forces and the rebel capital of Benghazi. The window for international action is shutting rapidly, even if it has not yet closed. But, as so often, there seems to be no multilateral desire for action.
Gaddafi’s triumph is a disaster for the Libyan people but also one of the biggest strategic set-backs the West has suffered in the post 9/11 world. Every dictator will now know that they can suppress a revolt with violence without fear of retribution. President Obama’s decision to transform America from global policeman to bystander will have consequences for America’s hopes of a more democratic, peaceful world.
Libya will now return to its old role as rogue state and supporter of any anti-Western group going. We can also expect that Gaddafi will encourage a flow of people to try and cross the Mediterranean and seek asylum in Europe. There will be direct costs to the West of not intervening, costs that might turn out to be far greater than those of intervening when this rebellion first started.
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