A counterpoint to the main story of Labour’s election victory is the way Gaza has cost the party at least five seats – and ran it very close in others. Jon Ashworth’s shock loss to independent Gaza campaigner Shockat Adam in Leicester South was the most high profile but there were three other losses to independents standing on a similar platform. Jeremy Corbyn was returned as an independent in Islington North, referencing Gaza in both his campaign literature and acceptance speech.
It won’t just be on Gaza that Starmer now comes under pressure to move
Khalid Mahmood, a Labour MP who has campaigned against Islamist extremism, was beaten in Birmingham Perry Barr by an independent, Heather Iqbal was beaten in Dewsbury and Batley, and Kate Hollern lost Blackburn. All three seats now have an independent MP (following a pattern seen in the May local elections). Wes Streeting, the Shadow Health Secretary, came within 528 votes of defeat in Ilford North. With Jess Phillips, who resigned from Starmer’s front bench to rebel against his Gaza policy, scraped back with 693 votes. Shabana Mahmood, set to be Justice Secretary, won her Birmingham Ladywood battle more comfortably than it had seemed at some points overnight.
A great many other MPs will have been scarred by the fight. The message from voters – certainly in these constituencies – is that the party’s position on Gaza still wasn’t right. Analysis shows that Labour’s vote fell the sharpest in areas where Muslims made up a greater share of the electorate.
Will this now shape UK government policy? After his result, Streeting has been saying that party needs to listen more to its voters on Gaza. Starmer will have to decide what to do about government legal advice on whether Israel is complying with international humanitarian law, and whether to change the current arms exports licensing regime.
The UK government does not directly supply Israel with arms, but a number of defence companies including BAE systems and Leonardo do. It had also been reported that Starmer might delay his manifesto pledge of recognising Palestinian statehood so that the UK could do so in step with other western countries. But he may likely be pressed by his own MPs, including frontbenchers, to speed ahead.
It won’t just be on Gaza that Starmer now comes under pressure to move. Corbyn walking home in Islington North and four Green MPs will mean there is a small but significant voice in parliament calling on Starmer to move left on a number of issues. When there are votes on the two child benefit cap, for instance, there will be MPs on the soft left of the party who question whether they are taking the right position. Party management has been one of the greatest limiting factors for the Conservatives over their 14 years in government. Starmer now has to ensure that it doesn’t end up being his biggest problem, too.
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