In a rare interview over the weekend, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told the Mail on Sunday that he would not be pushed into giving dubious legal advice on the backstop. He said he would ‘not change’ his opinion unless he was certain there was ‘no legal risk of us being indefinitely detained in the backstop’;
‘My professional reputation is far more important to me than my reputation as a politician. If the risk of being trapped in the backstop had not been removed, then I would make it as clear and plain and in exactly the same way as I did on November 13.’
Today that promise has come to fruition and unfortunately for Theresa May, Cox’s honesty could spell curtains for her Brexit deal. No. 10 were pessimistic last night over whether the concessions would be enough for Cox. The Attorney General has now published legal advice on May’s revamped deal – in which he declares that the ‘backstop risk is unchanged‘:
‘The legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences… [there is] no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements.’
This is a significant blow to No. 10 and makes it much harder for May to (a) pass her deal (b) avoid another historic defeat. There are a few points in the legal advice which ministers can point to as a sign of progress. The Attorney General says the concessions from Brussels will ‘reduce the risk’ that Britain could be indefinitely be trapped in the customs union.
Will this be enough to satisfy the DUP and the ERG? At present, it seems unlikely. The Brexiteers’ self-assembled ‘star chamber’ of legal minds will reveal their own verdict at 12.15pm – and Cox will face questions from MPs in the Chamber at lunchtime when he gives a statement. However, on a day where everything needed to go just right for May in order for her to avoid another humiliating defeat, this is a very bad start – and could lead to a very undesirable sequence of events for Downing Street. Government optimism is draining fast.
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