George Osborne launches welfare counter-attack

The petition to get Iain Duncan Smith to live on £53/week has amassed more than 122,000 signatures. And counting, quickly. The petition was inspired by IDS remarking, on yesterday’s Today programme, that he could live on such a welfare settlement. The secretary of state could not have said anything else; yet these incidents always create media firestorms. The IDS blaze still burns this morning; but that may not unnerve the government: from its perspective, news bulletins devoted to IDS’ gait are preferable to those devoted to the vulnerable.

After a gruelling, though not unsuccessful, 24 hours warring over welfare cuts, the government is mounting a flanking counter-attack. A scattering of economic stories colour some of this morning’s news reports – the possibility of a new relief toll road on the M4 in South Wales, upgrades to A-roads (£) in the north east, Wessex and East Anglia.

These appear to be carefully placed glimpses into the thinking behind the forthcoming spending review; little rouses designed to get the chatty chattering. We hear of them today because George Osborne is to give a major speech.

He will defend tax changes and allowance reform, which will allow him to discuss matters economic, the spending review and the road to recovery. The speech will also be about welfare reform (which is a vital plank in the government’s recovery and deficit-reduction strategies). Osborne will emphasise that these controversial reforms enjoy public support. These reforms are, for Osborne at least, about more than ‘making work pay’. He has long been aware of the Tories’ need to attract C1 and C2 voters, and his approach to welfare reveals something of his strategy. Osborne plans to quote Treasury figures that show the average ‘hard-working’ family with two children will be £400 better off, while other groups across the system will benefit to some extent.

The pitch for the middle of the middle is blatant, and his vehement attacks on ‘vested interests’ – church leaders, campaigners, charities and the Labour party – are designed to prove to those voters that the Tories are on their side. He is also daring the ‘vested interests’ to carry on complaining. Osborne needs predictable, reactionary enemies if the public is to be convinced that the Tories are on its side.