Peter Hoskin

Grim predictions

Grim predictions
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As James said the other day, May 1st is becoming increasingly important for Gordon Brown. A better-than-expected set of Labour results, and he can start to reassert his dominance. A bad set of results, and the chatter about his political demise will only get louder.

Unfortunately for our Prime Minister, the latter scenario looks more and more likely. In today's Times, a group of experts marks Labour down for a local election battering. One even predicts that Labour's share of the vote could drop to around 25 percent – that significantly undercuts the 28 percent share that party insiders allegedly expect, and would be the their worst performance for 30 years.

Of course, predictions don't necessarily come true. But this latest warning should at least cause more bitten fingernails on Downing Street.