The mood was grim when David Cameron, George Osborne and their advisers convened for a crunch meeting on 4 February this year. The economy had shrunk in the final three months of last year; the country was on the verge of a triple-dip recession, unprecedented in modern times. The government was in dire political straits.
Those present discussed the situation with appropriate solemnity. But the tension was broken when Rupert Harrison, the Chancellor’s chief economic adviser, passionately declared that the economy would be going ‘gangbusters’ by late summer, early autumn. Ed Llewellyn, the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, chuckled and joked that he would take a note of that confident prediction.
Eight months on, and as Downing Street aides like to point out, the ‘gangbusters’ note hangs proudly on Harrison’s office wall. Consistent growth has, at long last, returned and the government is waiting for official confirmation that the economy has grown at a robust rate for a second successive quarter.
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