LabourHome’s poll of Labour members – featured on the cover of today’s Independent – has caused quite a stir. UK polling report summarises the criticism that a few Labour figures have levelled against it – i.e. that it’s not sufficiently scientific – but also points out that similar polls by ConservativeHome have proved quite accurate in the past. Either way, the results are well worth a read. Here are some of the headline findings:
46.2% want Gordon Brown to lead Labour into the next election. 53.8% would prefer someone else. 45.3% believe a change of leader would improve Labour’s General Election prospects. 27.7% believe a change would harm Labour’s prospects. 27% believe it would make no difference. If Gordon Brown were to step aside, people would prefer: 24.6% David Miliband 18.1% Alan Johnson 11.3% Jon Cruddas 9.6% Jack Straw 6.6% Harriet Harman 6.5% John McDonnell 3.2% James Purnell 2% Ed Balls 18% Other names specified unprompted, significantly John Reid, John Denham and Hilary Benn, none more than 2%
As Ben Brogan points out, the expectation now is that the rebellious Labour MPs will be relatively quiet during the party conference. LabourHome’s poll makes one wonder whether the grassroot presence will be quite as accommodating.
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