Sebastian Payne

Has the Tory crossover in the polls finally arrived?

Has the Tory crossover in the polls finally arrived?
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As election day nears, the number of polls appearing is rapidly increasing. But it still remains very tight and the movements are generally within the margin of error. But there is one trend emerging from the handful of polls released in the last few days: the Tories are stable on 35 per cent and ahead of Labour. As the chart above shows, YouGov, Ipsos MORI and ComRes all put the Tories on 35 and ICM concurred with this vote share on Monday.

There is no consensus between the pollsters however on where Labour sits in comparison to the Tories. Lord Ashcroft had Labour the furthest behind, traling by six points, on Monday, while Ipsos MORI’s latest poll today has the Tories five points ahead but ComRes has the two parties level on 35 per cent. The only pollster who differs with this take is Populus, who put Labour ahead by three points earlier this week on 36 per cent. The pollsters also differ on how well Ukip is doing — ranging from the dizzying heights of 15 per cent, according to TNS, to ten per cent in today’s Ipsos MORI survey. In these polls, Greens’ vote share ranges from four to six per cent, while the Liberal Democrats remain in single digits.

After a successful first week of the short campaign for the Conservatives, Miliband and Labour have had the momentum so far — thanks to the Paxman interview, the seven-way debate and Miliband’s non-doms pledge. But the Conservative campaign appears to have gained some ground, with the attacks on the SNP and the switching the campaign to focus on the ‘brighter future’ the Conservatives can offer.

There is enough of a consensus between the pollsters here to show that the Tories are ahead, just. David Cameron appears to have the momentum, so the question for him ahead of tonight's Question Time debate is whether he can keep this going until polling day or whether a strong Miliband performance can change the narrative.