Hilton will probably ride it out

Not for the first time, a throwaway line in a Spectator article by James Forsyth has been picked up by Fleet St and set the hares running. It’s about Steve Hilton, Cameron’s best friend and chief strategist, and whether he’ll quit. Hilton is a man in a hurry — rightly, in my view, as the Tories are not incapable of blowing the next election. So he wants things transformed, and — for all his faults — acutely feels the sense of urgency and tries to communicate it through government. The Whitehall machine (and, more specifically, the permanent secretary of No.10) does not share this urgency and waters down change. It poses a grave risk. Cameron’s mission to change Britain could be over, before it begins.

Two weeks ago, in his definitive piece about all this, James said that Hilton (who is the proud father of a second child) is getting increasingly frustrated:

“Steve Hilton, the Prime Minister’s guru and Downing Street’s reformer-in-chief, is increasingly frustrated by this backsliding. One Whitehall ally worries that he could soon walk away in frustration if all these policies carry on being delayed and diluted. Hilton’s problem is that the more his colleagues think that the party is going to win the next election, the more they will put off reform. Already the phrase ‘we’ll do that in the second term’ is beginning to litter the conversation of an increasing number of ministers and advisers. The fierce urgency of now has been replaced by the politics of mañana, mañana.”

And thus the ball starts rolling. So how seriously should we take it? Hilton is difficult to predict. He’s impulsive — in many ways, brilliant — but more than capable of walking out in a pique. This is, after all, a guy who decided to work from California for the best part of two years. He’s not your average political adviser.

But I suspect that the story is no stronger now than when James first wrote it. Hilton’s resignation is possible, his frustration with the govermment machine is palpable, but he will probably ride it out. So I would not be writing his political obituary just yet.