One of the nicest parts about writing this weekly column for Spectator Life is the informed comments that greet it each week from readers. I am thinking specifically about people such as ‘Simian Leer’, ‘Oswald Grimes’ and ‘Simon’. This week my thanks go to ‘Simian’, who in late December highlighted the chances of NASSALAM in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase.
Nassalam finished a staying-on third that day and ‘Simian’ later posted a second comment asking whether the Ultima Handicap Chase might be a good Festival target for Gary Moore’s six-year-old gelding. The astute reader seemed convinced a step up in trip to more than three miles would suit the horse.
As Nassalam prefers cut in the ground, the horse will also benefit from any guaranteed watering – if necessary – to ensure the ground is ‘good to soft’ on the opening day. If the heavens open before day one of the Festival, all the better.
Today, too, the form of that New Year’s Day contest, in which Nassalam was third, could hardly be working out better with the fourth horse, Il Ridoto, dotting up on Cheltenham Trials’ Day last weekend and the sixth horse, Jacamar, winning comfortably just two days ago at Leicester.
Of course, Nassalam is not guaranteed to run in the Ultima and, if he wins another big handicap before the Festival, he will blow his current handicap mark/official rating of 144. But, hopefully, with the Festival not much more than a month away, that will not happen and this race could well be his target.
All in all, it makes sense to back Nassalam Non Runner No Bet for the Ultima – four bookies (Sky Bet, William Hill, bet365 and BetVictor) now have this offer on all Festival races. Take the 20-1 each way NRNB paying five places with Sky Bet rather than the 25-1 with some other firms not offering the NRNB concession and only paying four places. If Nassalam does line up on 14 March, he is very unlikely to be 20-1. If he doesn’t contest the race, we will simply get our money back. Make no mistake, this is a very good bet.
In the meantime, this weekend offers plenty of good racing at Sandown, Musselburgh and Wetherby – and, even more so, across the Irish Sea at the Dublin Racing Festival. However, my only suggested bet for the two days is on EMPIRE STEEL in the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (Sandown, 3.30 p.m. tomorrow).
Sandy Thomson’s nine-year-old gelding ran as many poor races as good ones last season but when he was on song he looked a proper racehorse. He demolished a six-horse field at Kelso in February last year winning hard held by 16 lengths off a rating of 139. He had earlier looked likely to win the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby off a mark of 141, but he fell four fences out.
Tomorrow his rating is still a very fair 143 and connections are hoping for a big run from him so that he is all but guaranteed a place in the Randox Grand National field at Aintree on 15 April (that would probably need a rating of 145).
Take the 12-1 each way, paying five places, offered by Sky Bet even though he would probably prefer softer ground than he will encounter tomorrow. Rapper, who won comfortably at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, could be a big danger but time may tell he will be even better suited by a marathon trip of up to four miles.
Finally, even though I have already put up two bets for the Randox Grand National, I am going to put up a third in ANY SECOND NOW. The more I look at his form in last year’s race, the better it seems.
We now know that he had an impossible task trying to concede 12lbs to Noble Yeats and was only beaten just over two lengths into second place. The first two pulled 20 lengths or more clear of the third horse, Delta Work.
Noble Yeats is now rated 167 – fully 20lbs more than in the National – while Any Second Now has gone up a mere 3lbs to a rating of 162. Once again, his season is sure to be aimed with just one Saturday in April in mind and, even at 11 years old, he might triumph in his third attempt at winning the marathon contest.
Take the 20-1 each way five places with William Hill because he is unlikely to be outside the first five home if he jumps around safely. Any Second Now runs in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Gold Cup at Leopardstown tomorrow but all I want to see here is him come back safe and sound.
Last weekend worked out well for followers of my tips which, I am pleased to say, show a profit of more than 27 points in just two months. Master Coffey, as I had feared, was a non-runner (money back) but Back on the Lash, put up at 7-1, won nicely. As one Spectator Life reader, ‘Squire Western’, commented after the race: ‘Back on the Lash definitely an improvement on Dry January!’ I will drink to that.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Empire Steel at 12-1 in the Sandown 3.30 p.m tomorrow, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Nassalam at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chases, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 25-1 for the National Hunt Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
Settled:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced (4th). – 2 points.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.
1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.
1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25 p.m. paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st + 16.4 points.
2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with Skybet. 1st. + 10 points.
1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m,, with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.
1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Doncaster 3.15 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Back On The Lash at 7/1 for the Cheltenham 12.40 p.m., 1/5 odds, five place. 1st. + 8.4 points
2022-3 jumps season, running total + 27.8 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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