The re-election of a pro-independence majority to the Scottish Parliament shows that the next five years will be dominated by the quest for a second independence referendum. Conventional wisdom is that the Scottish Parliament will pass a Bill legislating for that referendum, daring Westminster to strike it down, making the separatist position more powerful, like a constitutional Obi-Wan Kenobi.
This may be how things play out. Another option, of course, is that any interested party could refer the legislation to the courts as being ultra vires. However, it would still present a risk that permission to hold such a referendum would be given, putting Westminster on the back foot once again.
But there is a third way: start the independence negotiations.
The Achilles’ heel of the Nationalists is their preference for deliberate obfuscation over the financial situation in Scotland, their incompetence in running public services, and their avoidance of policy detail. The 2014 White Paper, with its fanciful oil revenue projections, has been utterly discredited.
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