The decision made by 11 Conservative MPs to rebel and back Dominic Grieve’s amendment for a ‘meaningful vote’ on the final Brexit deal has received a mixed reaction in the Conservative party. Nadine Dorries – a one-time serial rebel herself – has suggested they ought to be deselected, while Henry Smith managed a slightly more nuanced tone on the Daily Politics when he said the rebels had ‘betrayed’ voters. Add to this, several hostile front pages naming and shaming the rebels and there’s a feeling that ostracism is the preferred way to deal with them.
As Robert Peston writes on Coffee House, in practical terms the Brexit rebellion is an embarrassment for May, not a disaster. It’s still not clear what a ‘meaningful vote’ is – and, besides, while Labour can unite on the need for scrutiny (and the need to embarrass the government with a Commons defeat), they diverge when it comes to the terms of Brexit and subsequently the backing of the final Brexit deal. Despite, this there are several pro-EU figures heralding the vote as the first step to stopping Brexit. This seems to be down to a few factors – including a new temptation by the Lords to amend the bill and the terms of the vote. Another theory being touted by certain Remainers is that this will be the first of many votes the government will lose. The thinking goes that these rebels won’t stop rebelling from here on in – and as they become more ostracised by their party they will start to rebel on domestic policy too. In the end, the government will face difficulty getting any meaningful legislation through – meaning no majority and potentially an early election.
While this certainly seems a stretch it does highlight how important the government’s handling of the situation is. After horror stories about the behaviour of the whips in the lead up to the vote, Theresa May must now tread with caution in order to stop the so-called Tory mutineers from mutating into her version of John Major’s bastards. Major found that the eurosceptic MPs were impossible to discipline after the first rebellion. Rather than a slap on the wrists, the Prime Minister should go into listening mode: love them, don’t shove them. A lot of the MPs who rebelled – or who abstained – are not your usual rebels, it doesn’t sit particularly well with them. It follows that if they feel the government is taking on their concerns rather than ostracising them, they won’t feel backed into a corner from which there is no return.
One of the most important things a prime minister should do is always show people that there is a way back. With talk rife of a New Year reshuffle, she’d be well-advised to bring one of these people into the tent to show them just this.
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