How does Starmer solve a problem like Farage?

Who is the biggest winner in the UK from Donald Trump’s victory across the pond? The answer may be Nigel Farage. While Labour ministers have so far rejected the Reform party leader’s offer to act as an intermediary, the MP for Clacton can boast to have a direct line to the so-called leader of the free world. This means that like it or not, the Prime Minister may end up discovering what Trump thinks about various issues from Farage interviews rather than the diplomatic service.

However, there is another perhaps bigger problem Farage poses to Starmer – and it’s an electoral one. Today, the Reform party leader is in Newport for the party’s Welsh conference. It’s part of the party’s efforts to build power bases across the country – in this case the Senedd. The party believes it can take voters from Labour across Wales – in part aided by job losses that can be linked to the net zero agenda, such as the closure of blast furnaces in South Wales.

As I reported earlier this year, while Reform initially took voters from the Tories and aided Labour’s path to a large majority, the party now believes it can cause Starmer electoral pain. Reform finished second in 98 constituencies, of which 89 are now held by Labour. Farage is looking to make gains in Wales and Scotland and to be the main challenger to Labour in the Red Wall seats of the Midlands and northern England. ‘That’s where we’ll be fighting Labour and of course we’re going to measure our success next year in the county elections,’ he told me earlier this year.

Notably, Trump’s victory is adding to Labour’s nerves – it points to the danger of Starmer failing to listen and respond to voter concerns on immigration and the economy. As one Labour MP puts it: ‘We cannot be distracted by bullsh–. It’s all about jobs and borders.’ That’s the lesson Labour MPs worried about Reform hope Starmer and his team will take from this week’s election result.

Hear more on Coffee House Shots, The Spectator’s daily politics podcast: