The Conservatives have suffered 1000 councillor losses – and the count is not over yet. This was the figure Tory aides used when they were attempting to manage expectations in advance. That the party is on course to exceed it shows that the result is worse than many in Tory circles had expected. Meanwhile, Labour are now the largest party in local government for the first time since 2002. The Liberal Democrats also have plenty to cheer about – gaining control of 12 councils.
So, how much trouble are the Tories in? The fact that the party has been losing seats to the Liberal Democrats in traditional Tory heartlands while Labour have been making gains in parts of the red wall means MPs across the party have cause to be anxious. There have been slivers of good news in Stockton, Middlesborough, Redcar and South Staffordshire among others. The other ray of light for the Tories is that while Labour have clearly had a decent night, the national equivalent vote (NEV) is less decisive when it comes to Labour’s path to power. Sky News’s NEV projections gives Labour a seven-point lead. That could be short of what is needed for a majority (though Labour aides say that an SNP collapse in Scotland could mean it is enough). In 1996, the Labour lead on NEV was 14 and in 2009 the Conservative’s NEV lead was 13. It means this is not viewed as a knock out performance from Keir Starmer. With Sky News’ model putting Labour 28 seats short of a majority, Starmer will now face questions as to who he would work with in a hung parliament.
But while the level of success for Labour is debatable, no one is debating the fact that the Tories have had a very bad night. ‘Nothing is really different than before’, says one senior Tory – suggesting the result reflects the polls. In response to the results, Sunak has spoken of his disappointment at the results. Inevitably a blame game has begun. The government line is that much of this was already baked in when Sunak took over – and he did not have sufficient time to stem the losses given the chaos of the past year.
But not everyone is singing from the same hymn sheet. While MPs on the Tory WhatsApp group have been calling for calm heads and unity, a handful of Boris Johnson supporters are out – both publicly and anonymously – criticising Sunak’s leadership. MPs such as John Redwood have called for tax cuts while MPs are clashing on what the result says about the party’s housing plans. Some MPs have got in touch this evening to suggest the result calls for a ‘big idea’ and a more positive vision. Expect these conversations to grow louder in the coming days and weeks. In order to stay on track, Sunak will need to find a way to stop these tensions boiling over into public infighting.
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