How should the Tories handle Nicola Sturgeon’s Covid devolution?

This week was meant to mark the moment the whole of the United Kingdom began to ease lockdown. Instead, it’s England that has become an outlier – moving to the slogan ‘Stay Alert’ while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland stick with ‘Stay Home’. With the devolved governments adopting different approaches to easing lockdown, Downing Street is facing a communication battle – and it’s the First Minister of Scotland who is leading the charge.

Before Boris Johnson even got to his desk on Sunday night to make his address to the nation on the roadmap out of lockdown, Sturgeon had taken to social media and the airwaves to criticise the Government’s new slogan. She suggested that now was the time for extra caution – and implied that Johnson’s approach was a risky one – suggesting a relaxation right now could be ‘catastrophic’.

Depending on which part of the UK you are in, you can now do different things. People in Wales and England can go to garden centres whereas those in Scotland can’t. If you are in England, you can drive to the countryside to exercise – but not to Scotland or Wales as the rules don’t apply there. As for meeting someone outside of your own household, this is okay in England. This had led to some confusion – with a man called John raising the issue at Monday’s Q&A. As a resident in Scotland he asked who he ought to listen to: Johnson or Sturgeon?

With reports this week that SNP politicians are drawing up a renewed case for Scottish independence while Britain is in lockdown, senior Tories are growing concerned that the coronavirus pandemic could serve to weaken the union. In the coming weeks, the effects of the devolution settlement are going to be more visible than ever before. With headlines in the papers warning the English not to cross the border to Scotland unless it’s essential, there’s a worry one effect of the situation will be to reinforce a nationalist perspective.

Some Scottish Tories are concerned that No 10 has not yet grasped what they are up against. ‘It’s much better if you have a formidable opponent to respect them. Nicola Sturgeon is a top professional politician and she’s proving it,’ says one Tory following days of negative headlines for the Government and compliments piled on Sturgeon. ‘She is a very experienced player and she’ll exploit every mistake made.’

Although Scotland has issues with slow testing, care homes and the rate of infection, Sturgeon for now is winning praise for taking a cautious approach, unlike Johnson. This comes as tensions have bubbled behind the scenes for some time. Sturgeon attends Cobra meetings but it is a regular source of annoyance to those present that if they tell her the Government’s plans she tells the public before they have a chance to.

Then, if they don’t keep her updated, she’ll go to the press and complain that Scotland has been left behind. ‘You can’t win,’ says one government figure. In meetings, Sturgeon irks ministers by sometimes referring to Johnson not as the Prime Minister but as ‘Boris’.

While she used Sunday’s meeting to speak about the need for a four-nation response, there’s a realisation among government figures that she doesn’t see this as one led by England. ‘She wants to come out of this with the case for independence stronger,’ argues one Tory MP.

With Rishi Sunak extending the furlough scheme but bringing in new clauses for businesses, things could get ugly. While Sturgeon has control over the public health response in Scotland, it’s the Treasury that is in large part responsible for raising money. That means Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford, the First Minister of Wales, do not need to consider the economic impact in the same way Johnson’s Government does.

If there is a record-breaking recession, the hardest decisions will be made by Sunak. The concern is that any economic heat will be blamed on callous Tories not supporting low-paid citizens. The Tories had thought they would spend the year fighting the SNP over IndyRef2. Instead, they face a global pandemic – but going forward the same political problem remains.