As things stand, the number of MPs who have come out publicly to say they will back Theresa May in a confidence vote is enough to keep her in place. However, given that it is a secret ballot and there are still five hours to go until that vote, plenty could change between now and then. Whips are nervous about the middle chunk of MPs – who tend not to kick off – but have so far failed to raise their head above the parapet to back May.
But should there be no nasty surprises for May between now and the vote, the Brexiteer gamble could backfire. If May does win the vote, it doesn’t get any easier for her to pass her deal with Tory support – in fact, it gets harder. But if May is immune from a leadership challenge for a whole year, then the Prime Minister would have room to make decisions that would be unappetising to most eurosceptics.
Amber Rudd and her fellow Remain colleagues could argue that May has seen off her rebels and should now go the whole hog to a soft Brexit – with a customs union and single market. With the Brexiteer MPs out, they could say that this is the only way to win enough support to get a deal through Parliament. After all, what can the Brexiteers do about it?
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