Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

How the Snooping Bill could end up dead in the water – sooner or later

When Cabinet met this morning, ministers didn’t discuss the Communications Data Bill, which the government hopes to get into the forthcoming Queen’s Speech. But there is a growing sense in Westminster that it won’t make it out of the Commons alive – if it even manages to make it into the Commons. Here are three different scenarios for what could happen to this controversial piece of legislation:

1. The Bill fails to make it into the Queen’s Speech.

Discussions about the legislative programme for the next parliamentary year are taking place at the moment. For some motherhood-and-apple-pie bills, those negotiations are short and sweet: those at the top of government will agree that they are in favour of motherhood and apple pie, knowing that when the legislation has its second reading in the House of Commons, MPs will be falling over the green benches with excitement at being able to make lengthy and emotional speeches about apple pies in their constituencies and their respect for motherhood. The government can put this Bill pride of place in the speech.

But for bills that are going to cause a fuss, there is more thought. If legislation is announced which is then defeated in the Commons, it’s embarrassing for the government. The stakes are higher for the Snooping Bill: this is a piece of legislation that Nick Clegg has already vetoed once, and the chances are that Nick Clegg will want to go through its finer detail before allowing it to feature in the fanfare of the state opening of parliament, only to veto it later. So we could well see a veto before the Queen even enters the Palace of Westminster.

One other factor worth considering is how much of a part this particular piece of legislation plays in the personal pride of Theresa May.

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