If you find yourself on the same side of an issue as Iran, it is wise to think carefully
what path you have chosen to walk. Today, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned the foreign military intervention in Bahrain to confront the protests as “unacceptable.” To my
dismay, I agree with what Tehran says; but, I suspect (and hope), for very different reasons.
The grievances driving the Bahraini protests stem from years of discrimination by the Sunni elite of the Shia majority. Evidence of the problem is well-documented. Last year, Amnesty said that the Bahraini authorities had “failed to investigate alleged torture of detainees”. The State Department’s annual human rights report from 2009 said the “government restricted civil liberties, including freedoms of speech, press, assembly, association, and some religious practices” and went on to note that discrimination occurred “on the basis of gender, religion, nationality, and sect, especially against the Shia majority population.”
There is, in other words, a problem that cannot simply be denied away. A problem that has grown worse as the Bahrain government has cracked down violently on the protesters. Is Bahrain a lot worse than many other Arab countries? No. It’s probably a lot better. A report from 2006 for example said that Bahrain has one of the freest presses in the Middle East, with only Kuwait and Jordan scoring higher. But the idea that Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be able to stay in power through force and with the help of Saudi Arabia is foolish.
Inviting Saudi Arabia into Bahrain also risks heightening regional tensions. In Iraq, the Shi’ite community look eager as to get involved. Reuters is reporting that an Iraqi Shi’ite TV station us running a banner across the top of the screen reading “Save Bahrain.” Moqtada al-Sadr, the Shi’ite cleric who fought against the US military, has also said that the Saudi intervention was “unjust.” And unlike what the Saudis seem to think, the intervention may not nip protests by the Saudi Shia population in the bud, but could actually encourage protests inside Saudi Arabia.
For these reasons, Britain and the US should help Saudi Arabia to extricate itself from its neighbour and ensure that regional tensions arising from the crisis are minimized, whilst assisting the Bahraini government deliver the planned constitutional reforms so that the grievances felt by many citizens can be addressed. One way may be for the Saudi troops to be replaced by UN soldiers, much as British troops in Sierra Leone were swapped for a UN contingent or how a US-led force handed over to UN troops in Haiti.
On the model of Europe’s security sector reform programmes in the Balkans, the EU should offer Bahrain’s government a team of advisers to help reform the police and military to ensure that human rights violations will be investigated. Finally, it may be prudent to offer to set up an international committee of constitutional experts that can help the Bahraini government and add legitimacy to the constitutional process. Someone like Turkey’s Ergün Özbudun, who has just overseen drafting Turkey’s new constitution, might be acceptable to all sides.
The risk of a regional war is probably exaggerated, but there is enough reason to worry for Britain and her European allies to offer ways to help Saudi Arabia.
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