Humza Yousaf and Ash Regan launch SNP leadership bids

The first two candidates have declared in the race to succeed Nicola Sturgeon: Ash Regan and Humza Yousaf. The pair announced their intent in a front-page story for the Sunday Mail titled ‘Battle of the Bill: FM hopefuls go head-to-head on gender reform’. That focus reflects Regan’s major claim to fame as the only minister to resign over Sturgeon’s trans reforms back in October. In so doing, she became the first minister within the SNP to resign over government policy in 15 years. That is a testament to how united the party has been on most policy planks and suggests that the Gender Recognition Reform Bill will probably be one of the few public points of contention in this contest. Yousaf, the incumbent Scottish health secretary, is much more of a continuity candidate, with Stephen Daisley noting how his views on the constitution and gender identity are indistinguishable from Sturgeon’s.

Neither seem likely at this early stage to be the First Minister’s most obvious successor. Yousaf, frankly, has an unimpressive record in the health and justice briefs, with a series of gaffes to boot. This includes a controversial lawsuit – in which Yousaf’s wife took legal action against a nursery she claimed had discriminated against their daughter, allegedly because she had a Muslim-sounding name – which was dropped less than a fortnight ago. He is also the least popular of the front-runners for the SNP leadership among both the public and party voters. Regan is an outsider who is clearly not part of the incumbent party establishment. John Swinney, the current deputy first minister, has already ridiculed her ‘preposterous’ proposal to give SNP members who left in the past year a vote in this race. Regan could also face charges of disloyalty from the membership, which is still overwhelmingly supportive of the departing First Minister. Are they really likely to support an MSP who quit the Sturgeon government? 

The irony is that these two politicians are not the ones that everyone is talking about. The favourites to succeed Sturgeon are Kate Forbes and Angus Robertson, who are yet to rule themselves in or out of the leadership race. Forbes is the public favourite, Robertson the bookies’ choice. A ‘dream ticket’ between the two could well be unbeatable. Such a deal would be in keeping with the SNP’s history. There has been no contested election for party leader since 2004, and no successful candidate has won with less than two-thirds of the vote in the party’s post-war history. Yousaf and Regan entering the race is less about their merits as individual candidates but rather a sign that the era of SNP coronations could well be coming to an end. The question is: how many other MSPs will follow suit? And with members becoming frustrated at Scotland’s static support for independence, will the contest focus on policy debates – or the overall strategy to achieve that goal?