Hamish Macdonell

If a men-only referendum was held, Salmond would win comfortably

Another day another poll or, rather, another day and we have another two polls on independence.

Scotland on Sunday today published an ICM poll which found support for Yes on 45 per cent and support for No on 55 per cent, a gap of ten points (once don’t knows had been excluded).

But, most importantly what this means is that the gap between the two sides has narrowed by six points in the last month.

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According to ICM, the Yes side has gone up by three points since mid May while the No camp has gone down by three points.

ICM has always maintained a good reputation for the accuracy and sagacity of its polling so this one cannot be underestimated.

It definitely suggests that Alex Salmond and Co. have rediscovered their mojo and regained the momentum they lost over the Spring.

But the Scotland on Sunday poll should also be taken alongside another poll published today by the Sunday Herald.

This one was a Panelbase poll commissioned by Yes Scotland. Because it was commissioned by one of the sides in the campaign, it probably should be approached with a little more caution than the ICM poll.

But, nevertheless, it is a proper poll on the question of independence and it too shows a narrowing of the gap.

According to Panelbase, the gap between the two sides is now a mere four points, with Yes on 48 per cent and No on 52 per cent (once undecided had been excluded).

The Yes-supporting Sunday Herald championed the poll as a ‘breakthrough’ event and, if the poll is accurate, then that is almost the case (although it is hard to avoid the feeling that a real ‘breakthrough’ event would come when – or if – the Yes camp actually managed to record a lead in a  major poll).

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