It could be Kwasi Kwarteng, the business minister. Or Nadhim Zahawi, the education minister, and before that the minister who helped make the vaccine roll-out such a success. Or perhaps Sajid Javid will even get his old job back.
With an investigation opening into his financial affairs, and with questions over his judgment growing by the day, the Chancellor Rishi Sunak is increasingly damaged goods. It won’t be long before there is speculation about who will get the second most important job in British politics. But hold on. It doesn’t matter so much who moves into No. 11. What is important is that the next Chancellor clears out Sunak’s policies – and tries some conservative economics instead.
Sunak’s Treasury has been Gordon Brown on steroids
Sunak could hardly have had a more catastrophic week than the one he has just endured. At precisely the moment when taxes are going up and the cost of living crisis is starting to bite, it emerged that his fabulously wealthy wife Akshata Murthy may have saved millions in tax by claiming non-dom status, and that he himself held a US green card. He can argue all he likes that it is unfair to drag his partner into politics but when you have pushed taxes up to the highest level in 70 years to pay for your wild spending, it was hardly a wise decision. From the Prime Minister in waiting, Sunak is starting to look damaged beyond repair.
Sure, it is fun to speculate about his successor. Kwarteng and Zahawi are the most obviously qualified candidates. Liz Truss would be formidable, and it is about time a woman was appointed to the role (she would surely make mincemeat of Labour’s overrated Rachel Reeves). And yet the name of his successor is not as important as the policies. In reality, for all his ability, Sunak has been a disappointing Chancellor. He has pushed up taxes, put them on the wrong targets, spent money too wildly, and shown zero interest in genuine reform. It has been Gordon Brown on steroids. For all the talk of being a low-tax, fiscally responsible conservative in principle, there has been absolutely no evidence of it in practice.
In reality, what the UK needs right now is a return to Conservative economics. Such as? Government spending needs to be brought firmly back under control, and a working-from-home public sector reminded that it serves the public, not the other way around. Taxes need to be reduced, not just in 3071, or whenever Sunak’s income tax cut comes in, but right now.
Businesses need some help, not constant punishment with higher corporate taxes, and steeper National Insurance levies. And the government should be encouraging more people back into the labour market, so that we can earn rather than just borrow our way out of a cost of living crisis. It is the policies that matter more than the personalities. If Sunak is forced out of his office over the next few weeks, his successor needs to sweep out his legacy. And they need to relaunch the government’s economic strategy – so that it actually has a chance of promoting growth.
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