British politics is pretty depressing at the moment so thank god for the entertainment provided by the Republican candidates squabbling to become their party’s Presidential nominee. Dark times demand dark comedy leavened by appropriate measures of farce. Hurrah for Newt Gingrich, then. We are advised that he must be taken seriously now that he’s been endorsed by the Manchester Union-Leader even though that paper has in the past supported the likes of Steve Forbes, Pat Buchanan, Pete DuPont (1988) and Richard Ashbrook (1972). What’s more, the Union-Leader’s publisher thinks it sensible to say Newt “resembles” Winston Churchill.
Yes, all this is supposed to be an important symbol and the kind of credential Newt needs to establish himself with conservative voters. Perhaps so. True, strong finishes by Gingrich in Iowa and New Hampshire can leave him the pre-eminent Stop Romney candidate but, when push comes to shove, it remains probable that voters will eventually by more persuaded by the candidate best placed to Stop Obama. Newt is not, and never will be, that man.
Certainly, Romney can be damaged in New Hampshire. The expectations game does not favour Mitt in the Granite State. But if Manchester and Nashua and Concord are important to Romney they are even more important to Newt and anyone else hoping to challenge Mitt.
That is,unlike each of his rivals, Romney can all but secure the nomination in January. In the past, long-shot candidates such as Steve Forbes and Pat Buchanan have thrived in Iowa and New Hampshire only to find that these were flash-in-the-pan victories that did not produce the kind of national impact or “momentum” they might have desired. Still, without victory in Iowa or New Hampshrie the outsider, anti-establishment candidates are doomed.
This is so even if you accept that the campaigning takes place on a national, not local, level these days and that Iowa and New Hampshire are less important than they used to be. Maybe, but they remain more important for some candidates than for others.
Perhaps Republican voters aren’t yet willing to “settle” for Mitt Romney but despite the Union-Leader and all the rest of it, the great dog-abuser is still the prohibitive favourite, no matter what the polls say. This remains the case even as the press dwells on his rivals and finds ever more ingenious ways of suggesting Romney must be in some kind of trouble. the race needs a story and at the moment Newt’s main role is to provide that story. Fair enough, but not quite what’s needed to actually, you know, win.
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