In the pipeline: would Germany side with Russia in a conflict?

If Russia were to invade Ukraine, would Germany side with the Russians? For most of our post-war history, that would have been an absurd question, but things are changing fast in Europe. In the wake of recent events, it would not be irrational for Vladimir Putin to bet that if push came to shove, he could count on German neutrality — or even support.

The Ukraine crisis continues apace, with up to 100,000 Russian troops now gathered near its border. The obvious question is: what would happen if Putin were to invade? It would split the EU, exposing its energy dependence on Russia, ruin what is left of transatlantic relations and force Germany to choose sides. Officials in Kiev are convinced that this choice has already been made and that Germany is actively colluding with Russia, as witnessed by the construction of the massive Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

This new pipeline — built, but not yet approved — can transport 150 million cubic litres of gas from Russia to Germany every day. It also allows Russia to do what it likes in Ukraine without worrying about interrupting supply to Europe’s gas markets. In Kiev, it stands to reason that the Russian threat intensified soon after the 760-mile pipeline was completed. But in Germany, there is denial — and no sense of crisis.

The general tone in the German media is one of bewilderment that foreigners even take an interest in this pipeline. One of the few journalists who has raised concerns is the Swiss Mathieu von Rohr at Der Spiegel, who argues that the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) has a ‘Russia problem’. That is a polite way of putting it. It’s more the case that parts of the party — former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, for sure — are firmly on Team Putin.