Increasingly isolated, Karzai turns to Pakistan

The extraordinary raw intelligence leaks from the Afghan battlefield confirmed what many people already believed, or feared, about the war. But amidst the avalanche of documents, several new facts have emerged. We now know, for example, that civilians are being killed in much larger numbers than officially admitted by Nato. We know that the Taleban has acquired surface-to-air missiles which downed Western helicopters. We know that both Iran and Pakistan are deeply involved in the conflict, working closely with the Taleban. Finally, we know that the Taleban’s deployment of new weapons, tactics and especially landmines has been devastating to Western and Afghan forces — but, above all, to civilians.

What makes these leaks so damaging is that they have come at exactly the wrong time for everyone concerned. The US is desperately seeking a timetable for a withdrawal from Afghanistan and has enlisted both the Afghan and Pakistani governments to help it do so. Barack Obama is preparing for midterm elections: the last thing he needs is a crisis with his allies on account of the allegations made in these documents. It is deeply embarrassing not only that the source of the leaks is a US soldier, but that the leaks so decisively reveal US officers on the ground openly criticising both Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, the ISI.

A few months ago Hamid Karzai would have been thrilled to have confirmation that American officers are speaking openly about how divisions of Pakistani intelligence are helping the Taleban. But after spending eight years criticising the ISI, he recently decided to cosy up to them. This change is crucial to understanding what is really happening in Afghanistan.

Karzai seems to have given up on the ability of the Americans, the Brits and Nato either to defeat the Taleban or even to talk to them.