Ross Clark Ross Clark

Inflation slows to 10.7% – and may have passed its peak

Has inflation peaked? The Consumer Prices Index fell to 10.7 per cent last month, down from 11.1 per cent in October. This follows predictions that October would be the month in which inflation peaked – so this morning’s figures from the Office for National Statistics will raise hopes that the worst may be behind us. This doesn’t appear to be a blip. The market expects this to continue for the next two years before bottoming out in 2025. There will be optimism, too, that we can look forward to a sharp fall in the CPI over the next few months as the surge in energy prices begins to drop out of the figures.

Global oil prices have fallen sharply, as have wholesale gas prices. It is also good news, from an inflation point of view, that the pound has started a sturdy recovery against the dollar – it is stronger against the currency than at any point since the middle of June. The dreaded moment when the pound reaches parity with the dollar has been put off yet again. A rising pound prevents us importing inflation; indeed, it means that buying goods from abroad should be cheaper. However, the pound has not recovered so strongly against the euro – it is higher than its nadir in September, but still below summer levels. Given that we still import a lot of food from the EU we are unlikely to see large reductions in the price of basic commodities in the near future.

The average worker is estimated to be experiencing a 2.7 per cent real-terms pay cut

The danger now is secondary inflation – where businesses up their prices in a delayed reaction to rising input prices, workers demand higher wages and we end up in a wage-price spiral. The

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