Alex Salmond is hosting a show at the Edinburgh Festival Fringe this week. It’s called ‘The Ayes Have It’ and features special guests such as old mucker David Davis, trusty lieutenant Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh and former Commons sparring partner John Bercow. SNP notables Kate Forbes and Fergus Ewing are popping up and there will be a guest appearance from former first minister Henry McLeish. Salmond, some suspect, might be dreaming of a political comeback – but is a return realistic?
Salmond is probably the only independence supporting politician in Scotland who could mount a show like this without fear of outright ridicule. By contrast, former first minister and festival regular Nicola Sturgeon has just one low key appearance, while Humza Yousaf won’t be participating at all. That is probably wise. It’s hard to imagine any takers for an audience with the anodyne current first minister.
The beleaguered party might just agree to find a role for their former leading man
The first show – featuring David Davis – was certainly more entertaining than many of the political offerings at the Fringe. Davis had a hard time from the crowd during his appearance. ‘I’m clearly here for the villain part,’ he told the crowd. Even if SNP supporters in the audience didn’t like it, his appearance also showed this is no indie love in. Salmond clearly anticipated some push back from the audience as he has appealed for supporters to come along to counter any unionist festival bias.
So should unionists be worried about Salmond? There is some reason to take his third coming seriously. There is a gaping hole at the centre of the independence movement crying out for a big beast untainted by the recent financial controversies of the SNP. And even his detractors would probably agree that Salmond is a far more substantial figure than Sturgeon, one with a genuine career, in finance, behind him and a breadth of experience and political know-how.
Salmond’s friendship with David Davis proves his ability to reach out beyond the separatist zealots and at least engage with those with other viewpoints. He may be a Scottish nationalist to his bones yet he doesn’t seem to have the marrow deep hatred of Conservatives of his successor. Salmond would never have said anything so self-defeatingly crass and unpleasant as ‘I detest the Tories and everything they stand for’ as Sturgeon once did in an interview, thus alienating nearly a quarter of the Scottish electorate in the process.
Salmond can also point to a track record of presiding over a reasonably competent administration at Holyrood: a night and day contrast to what followed. The Salmond-led government largely avoided scandal, managed not to alienate business, and would surely never have entertained such loopy ideas as gender self-id, the deposit return scheme or the abandonment of Scotland’s remaining oil and gas resources.
On the other hand, another Salmond comeback? Meh…might be the reaction of many, which may be why his show hasn’t sold out and why his alternative independence Alba party has hardly set the heather on fire, depending on defections rather than elections for its representatives. Alba received 1.7 per cent of the vote at the last Holyrood election and 0.7 per cent at last year’s council elections.
Salmond is such a ‘well kent’ figure that his renaissance is likely to be less the breath of fresh air the cause is crying out for and more a gust of rather stale wind. He remains divisive: those that love him, always will and those that don’t aren’t likely to revise that opinion. And while his legal troubles may be behind him and his innocence established by a jury he will remain a toxic figure.
To truly return to significance, Salmond would need, surely, to come to some sort of accommodation with his former party, which would involve a major shake up and the sharp snapping of the strings currently pulled by Patrick Harvie of the Scottish Greens. A repackaged SNP/Alba vehicle headed by Salmond, with the saner elements of his former party (Joanna Cherry, Angus McNeil, Kate Forbes), who were frozen out of influence by the Sturgeon regime, rehabilitated, might just prove viable. The presence of Forbes, Ewing and Michelle Thompson in his Edinburgh show suggests that at least a faction of the SNP might be open to the idea.
Salmond has already signalled that he recognises he needs to move in this direction by imploring Yousaf to agree to field an ‘Independence’ candidate in the upcoming Rutherglen and Hamilton West by election. That Alba have postponed a decision on whether they will field a candidate at all suggests that they lack confidence not just in their ability to win, but perhaps even retain their deposit.
Which rather vividly highlights Salmond’s problem. A big beast perhaps but on the loose, on the prowl, unable to exert dominance over his former realm. If his Edinburgh show gets him some good press and burnishes a reputation for popular appeal it might boost his cause. And if the SNP bomb at the upcoming by election, the beleaguered party might just agree to find a role for their former leading man.
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