Is an autumn election inevitable?

There’s a joke going around the various warring tribes in the Tory leadership contest. They might not win this time, they tell each other, but not to worry: ‘We’ll all meet again in November.’ The point is that whoever succeeds Theresa May is doomed: the 31 October deadline will pass not with Britain leaving the European Union but with a political crisis and a general election that will be won by Jeremy Corbyn. After that, the Tories will in a few months go through the whole process again — this time to pick a leader of the opposition. ‘We’re using this leadership campaign as a test run for when the whole thing collapses in the autumn,’ says one aide.

Some MPs are more optimistic and think the next prime minister will survive until Christmas — but generally, no one is at all sure how this will be resolved. The European Union is refusing point blank to change its Brexit deal, and parliament is full of MPs who suggest they’ll sooner vote down the government than allow a no-deal Brexit. Add to the mix a new leader ruling out any delay to Brexit and you get either a last-minute breakthrough or a collapse. Many Tories predict the latter.

As one MP puts it: ‘Despite all the noise about moderate Tories coming out for Brexiteers, the parliamentary arithmetic [for a Brexit solution] has not changed.’ Only an election could change it.

Boris Johnson remains clear favourite to succeed May, in part because of his uncompromising Brexit position. Staying in the EU beyond 31 October, he says, could lead to the extinction of the party. With the exception of Esther McVey, all the candidates have promised to seek a new deal with the EU, but May is telling MPs that is a fantasy.