Could Greek voters back austerity measures to keep their country in the eurozone this weekend? Today’s papers cover a poll by GPO which put ‘Yes’ on 47.1 per cent and No on 43.2 per cent. This result would see resignations at the top of Syriza, but effectively no Grexit. If Alexis Tsipras’ gamble of saying he’ll resign if the country does indeed vote ‘Yes’ to the cuts demanded by Greece’s creditors pays off, and voters plump for Syriza’s preferred option of ‘No’, then David Cameron will find himself with what James describes in this week’s Spectator as a ‘glorious opportunity to craft a looser form of EU membership’ because the eurozone would be forced to integrate further, and because Cameron can use the British veto to negotiate a better deal. The question is whether he is ready to use that opportunity or not. James writes:
‘A Greek departure from the single currency would force the eurozone to change dramatically. It would have to move fast to integrate further if Portugal, Spain, Italy and even France are not to be pushed towards the euro exit the next time a fiscal crisis hits. (There is a reason why Paris is trying so hard to broker a last-minute deal for Greece.) This may well require a new treaty to complete economic and monetary union.
‘Such a development would in turn give Cameron, armed with the British veto, greatly increased negotiating leverage. The crisis would force the EU to accept that the dream of Europe-wide integration is now dead. What is more, the huge number of Greeks who would leave the country to seek work elsewhere in the EU would further test other countries’ commitment to the principle of freedom of movement, making it more likely that Cameron could win concessions on immigration — the aspect of EU membership that most concerns the public.
‘Cameron’s defenders would argue that, when people call him lucky, what they actually mean is that he seizes his opportunities. But so far he has shown a marked reluctance to take advantage of Europe’s troubles to secure a better deal for Britain.’
But given a ‘Yes’ vote will not bring an instant end either to the political turmoil or the misery that Greeks are personally encountering (charted by Harry Mount here), Cameron knows that the Greek crisis presents him with opportunities either way as European leaders work out how to protect the eurozone for the long term, and how this applies to non-euro countries in the EU. As well as being ready to seize the opportunities presented to him, he does also need to work out how to get heard when leaders are rather distracted by a rumbling crisis.
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