Is it really over for Boris Johnson?

It’s Boris day in Westminster. First, the publication of his resignations honours list and now a resignation from the man himself. This evening Boris Johnson has released a statement announcing that he has ‘today written to my Association in Uxbridge and South Ruislip to say that I am stepping down forthwith and triggering an immediate by-election’. Johnson adds that he is ‘very sorry’ to leave the ‘wonderful constituency’. His decision comes after he was passed a draft report of the Privileges Committee, which is understood to recommend a suspension of more than ten days: the length that could spark a by-election.

Referencing the findings of the report, Johnson says he is ‘very sad’ to be leaving parliament at ‘least for now’ but is ultimately appalled at the ‘anti-democratic’ push to force him out by the committee led by Harriet Harman. Johnson also uses the statement to say that the Tory party has lost momentum and needs to cut business and personal taxes ‘and not just as pre-election gimmicks’. He also asks why the government has junked measures to ‘scrap EU directives or to promote animal welfare’. The Spectator’s article of Boris Johnson’s statement has been shared on the Tory WhatsApp group approvingly by Simon Clarke – Andrea Jenkyns is among those MPs to respond approvingly – with Clarke suggesting it is well said. Jenkyns (who features in Johnson’s honours list) has blamed Sunak on the WhatsApp group for starting the drama with his resignation.

So, is this the end of the road for Johnson in parliament? That’s the initial read on his comments, and the most obvious interpretation. But there’s another theory doing the rounds tonight in government and among Tory MPs – that this is not over yet. After all Nadine Dorries mysteriously stepped down as an MP earlier today, and the key Johnson ally said she wouldn’t go into why. Her seat of Mid Bedfordshire is a much safer seat than Uxbridge. Could Johnson try to become the candidate? Conservative HQ could veto him and plump for a local candidate instead. But if this goes ahead, it would create a political headache for Sunak. Johnson’s decision to spark a by-election in his own seat – which the Tories are expected to lose – means many in the party would resent the precedent of losing a seat to then be rewarded with a safer bet.

Boris Johnson’s spokesperson is offering no comment tonight to journalists’ asking whether Johnson could stand for Mid Bedfordshire, but several MPs close to Johnson suggest he is more likely to bide his time before attempting to mount a return. In that scenario, the worry in government is how much noise he makes from outside the tent.