Ross Clark Ross Clark

Is lockdown II working?

Getty images

How much has this week’s ructions in Downing Street been influenced by the Prime Minister’s decision, two weeks ago, to call for a new 28 day lockdown – and the subsequent questions asked of the data to justify it? On the one side are the 50 or so Conservative MPs who have joined the Covid Recovery Group calling for an end to lockdowns, and the many others who sympathise with them. On the other was Dominic Cummings, believed to be a keen proponent of lockdown.

Last week’s infection survey – the weekly Office of National Statistics study showing the prevalence of Covid-19 in the general population – suggested that the number of people with the disease had begun to level off even before the announcement of the new lockdown on 31 October. 

But the survey did once before, in late September, record a levelling off in the prevalence of infections, only for them to rebound the following week. Today, the ONS has published the latest instalment of the infection survey, covering the week 31 October to 6 November – between the announcement of the second lockdown and it actually coming into effect. It confirms that the trend in prevalence appears to be continuing to level off. During that week, 654,000 people in England – 1 in 85 of the population — were estimated to have the virus. That was a slight increase on the estimate of 618,700 the previous week, but constitutes a slowing-down compared with the rate of increase seen in September and October.

The survey also estimates the rate of new infections. During the week ending 6 November, its central estimate is an infection rate of 8.75 per 10,000 people.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in