Is Nato really ready to shoot down Russian jets?

Until recently, when Russian drones strayed into Nato airspace during mass attacks on Ukraine, fighter jets would scramble, not to shoot them down, but to watch. The allies tracked the drones as they flew across the Nato border, either jammed off course or deliberately redirected to confuse Ukrainian air defences. In both cases, if the drones didn’t crash into a field somewhere in Romania or Poland, they always made it back to bomb Ukrainians, under the close watch of Nato’s best pilots on fully loaded warplanes.

For Ukrainians, this was infuriating. They could almost understand why the West refused to shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine out of fear of escalation and a direct confrontation with Moscow. But why, they asked, would Nato not defend its own borders? Is the alliance so terrified of Vladimir Putin’s retaliation that it allows Russian drones to roam its skies freely? In Kyiv, it was seen as weakness – or worse, indifference.

That changed on 10 September, when at least 19 Russian drones flew deep into Poland. For the first time, Nato jets opened fire. Some of the drones were shot down and others crashed. The world didn’t end. Putin didn’t press the red button. As ever since his invasion of Ukraine, when Putin’s bluff is called, his threats deflate.

In the past month, Nato’s eastern borders have endured a record number of violations. Just yesterday, two Hungarian Gripens intercepted five Russian military aircraft over the Baltic Sea near Latvian airspace. In Denmark, unidentified drones circled above Aalborg airport, located near a Danish military base, for two consecutive nights. Last week, three Russian MiG-31s stayed in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. Hours later, Polish border guards reported two Russian jets flying low over an oil platform in the Baltic Sea.

Poland and Estonia invoked consultations under Article 4 among Nato members, forcing them to confront the reality of Russian drones and jets probing the bloc’s red lines. The North Atlantic Council responded with a statement of ‘full solidarity’ with the allies under attack and demanded that Moscow stop. Then, they turned to Ukraine for help. Today, 11 EU states gathered with Ukrainian officials to discuss building a drone wall to shield Europe’s eastern border. Several countries have declared publicly that they will shoot down any Russian drone or aircraft that crosses into their territory.

Poland has taken the lead. Prime minister Donald Tusk vowed that any Russian jet that enters Polish airspace will be destroyed. His deputy, Radosław Sikorski, carried the message to Moscow’s envoy at the UN: ‘If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down… please don’t come here to whine about it. You have been warned.’

According to Bloomberg, British, French and German officials told their Russian counterparts in Moscow this week that Nato is prepared to respond with force to future incursions, including by shooting down Russian planes. Even Donald Trump suddenly turned hawkish on Putin at the UN assembly this week, saying that Russian aircraft flying into Nato airspace should be shot down. The question is whether the allies will hold that line if Putin decides to probe the warning.

For years now, Volodymyr Zelensky has been urging Ukraine’s partners to shoot down Russian missiles and drones over Ukraine, or at least over the western regions. What was once instantly dismissed is now on the table, discussed between Ukraine, Poland and Romania. Warsaw is reportedly preparing to amend laws that currently forbid it from downing Russian missiles and drones in Ukrainian or Belarusian airspace without Nato approval. Until then, until Nato stops talking and starts acting, Russia will continue to test how much the bloc is willing to tolerate.