Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro seems to be in something of a political pickle. On Sunday, he held a referendum on whether or not Venezuela should annex Essequibo, a dense jungle region which makes up two-thirds of neighbouring Guyana. In the end, 95 per cent voted to support Venezuela’s claim to the land (Maduro hailed this as an ‘overwhelming victory’) but turnout was at best, lacklustre.
‘The people have spoken loud and clear,’ Maduro bellowed after the result in a televised statement, in front of a map which placed Essequibo inside Venezuela. But it’s the people who decided not to speak on Sunday that have placed him in difficulty.
It’s not exactly a surprise that Venezuelans voted to lay claim to Essequibo. It is perhaps the only topic – along with football – that truly unites the country and cuts across its political divides. Venezuelans have believed the territory belongs to them since they achieved independence in 1811 (in 1899, an international tribunal awarded the territory to Britain, which ruled British Guiana). In 2004, Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chavez said that he considered the issue to be settled. But that was before vast quantities of oil off Guyana’s coastline were discovered – and Venezuela’s own oil industry collapsed.
Still, this referendum was less about expansionist policies and more of a political litmus test for Maduro ahead of next year’s presidential vote. The socialist leader’s support has, unsurprisingly, been faltering in recent years. He’s overseen what was once the richest country in South America – due to its abundant oil reserves – plunge into economic and humanitarian oblivion, with sky high inflation, grim poverty rates and one of the largest migration crises in the world.
So for Maduro, this was a chance to see the strength of his base – and gauge how rocky the road towards the 2024 presidency would be. He now claims that 10.4 million people voted on Sunday, but these figures are sketchy. Ten million would be around half of Venezuela’s voting population and videos online show almost empty polling stations on the day of the vote. Understandably, Guyana claims turnout was much lower, at 1.5 million. Critics and political analysts – and even those supporting Venezuela’s claim to Essequibo – have alleged that there has been rampant vote inflation.
Whatever the true number, Maduro is likely to keep encouraging the patriotic fervour of the electorate over the Essequibo issue ahead of next year’s presidential election. It’s not like there is much else he can boast about. It’s also a way of diverting attention away from his opponents, namely María Corina Machado, who won the opposition primaries by a landslide in October.
But while Maduro will make great political hay out of the referendum, that doesn’t mean he’s ready to annex the region just yet. Political bluffing is much cheaper – financially and politically – than sending in the army. Any military manoeuvring by Venezuela would likely push the US into reimposing sanctions it has only just eased on the oil, gas and gold sectors. Venezuela is hoping America’s relaxation of sanctions – in exchange for international observers being able to monitor the 2024 election – will lead to some economic growth and reduce inflation.
While the Venezuelan public supports the annexation of Essequibo, appetite for an imminent armed conflict is likely to be very low. The minimum wage for a public sector worker in Venezuela is currently equivalent to less than $4 – about enough for a large carton of milk. With the majority of the population living hand to mouth, most people are much more concerned about food rather than fighting.
Despite this, we shouldn’t be too complacent about armed intervention. History tells us that an autocratic leader facing declining support can end up making reckless decisions – just look at the doomed Falklands invasion of 1982.
Guyana, for its part, says it’s remaining ‘vigilant’. South America’s only English speaking nation had asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to put a stop to the vote. The ICJ didn’t cancel the referendum, but it did warn Venezuela not to take ‘any action which would modify the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute.’ A delegation from the US Department of Defense visited Guyana just a few days before the referendum, and Brazil, a neighbour of both countries, mobilised troops near its northern border. Regional governments have asked Venezuela not to escalate the crisis.
Meanwhile, Venezuela’s president is in an uncomfortable and fragile position. His sabre-rattling means his next steps are being scrutinised by the rest of the world – as well as those who will decide his fate at the ballot box next year. One wrong step could have unintended consequences for his political future – and for the region.
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