Phillips O'Brien

Is Putin preparing for total war on 9 May?

(Photo: Getty)

Ahead of Russia’s annual Victory Day celebration on 9 May – which marks the date the Soviet Union defeated Nazi Germany – the world is once again playing a will he, won’t he game with Vladimir Putin. It is inconceivable that Putin will be able to declare any kind of victory in the Donbas on 9 May as he originally intended. The question now is whether he will use the anniversary to declare all-out war on Ukraine instead and fully mobilise Russian society.

It is a terrifying decision for Putin to face. The conquering army he sent into Ukraine has been shown to be deeply flawed, too small to conquer large amounts of territory, and inadequately led. It was humiliated in the Battle of Kyiv and the Russians were forced to withdraw to consolidate their army in the Donbas, where Putin was hoping to declare victory on 9 May.

Instead, Ukraine has stopped almost all Russian advances in the region. The Battle of the Donbas has been another bloody and expensive operation for the Russian army. And things could soon get significantly worse.

General mobilisation is a potential minefield that does not guarantee victory

Since the invasion on February 24 the Russians have been getting weaker and weaker as they have lost their best and most up-to-date equipment in battle. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, are getting stronger every day as they receive significant help from Nato countries, who have provided them with the kind of advanced weapons they could only have dreamt about before Putin invaded.

Soon Russia will not have enough troops to hold the 400 miles of front line it has seized in Ukraine. If Putin is actually going to continue this war through the summer, he will need significantly more troops and equipment – a new, large and powerful force that can fight an increasingly well-equipped Ukrainian army with high morale.

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