Is Reform about to become the most popular political party in Britain, overtaking both Labour and the Tories in national opinion polls?
The rise of the light blue peril in opinion surveys since the general election at the expense of both major parties has certainly caused jitters in Westminster. MPs from more established parties know that Reform hitting the front would be a major story in itself and could generate a ‘feedback loop’ that could further stretch its lead.
Following a bumpy Christmas for Kemi Badenoch, the latest Spectator poll tracker which aggregates surveys up to 8 January, has Labour averaging 27 per cent, the Tories just over 23 per cent and Reform just under 23 per cent.
But a new poll published today by the pollster Find Out Now suggests we are suddenly very close to a ‘crossover’ moment when the insurgent party establishes an average poll lead over both its main rivals.
Find Out Now’s headline figures are Labour on 25 per cent, Reform on 25 per cent and the Tories on 20 per cent. That represents a one point drop for Labour since the last survey from this pollster, with Reform holding its share steady and the Tories shedding three points.
This is in line with the general pattern of recent polls, in which Labour support has somewhat consolidated, Reform has continued to nudge upwards and the Tories have dropped back. Anyone still contending that Badenoch was wise to go toe-to-toe with Nigel Farage in a Christmas row over Reform’s membership figures must be feeling pretty lonely by now – the scores on the doors say otherwise.
In the last dozen nationwide polls from all accredited pollsters, Reform has only once recorded a score below 20 per cent and that was a 19 per cent rating by More in Common which generally scores it lower than most other opinion research companies do anyway.
Reform has now been ahead of Labour in one recent poll and ahead of the Tories in two, as well as being tied at the top with Keir Starmer’s party in this latest survey. In other words, it is not quite there yet but is close to hitting the front.
Given that major political news tends to show up in poll ratings about a week afterwards, there is every reason to expect a new slide in Labour’s rating: bad economic and financial news, a winter NHS crisis, plus the party’s terrible positioning on the rape gangs scandal will more than likely drag it down a couple of points. Badenoch and the Tories have done much better this week and should bounce back a bit. But Reform has also been on the front foot – including over Farage’s refusal to be bossed around by Elon Musk. If it can notch up a couple more scores in the mid-20s that may be enough to push it ahead in various ‘poll of polls’ indices.
With Farage about to benefit from another publicity blitz around Donald Trump’s inauguration – and from a growing feeling that the progressive global political paradigm of the past 25 years is bust – it would now be a definite surprise were Reform not to go through a phase of leading in the polls.
The question we may therefore find ourselves addressing soon is not whether Reform can hit the front but whether Reform has hit the front too early.
Given the immense difficulties any insurgent political force customarily faces when trying to build momentum in the British system – where the first past the post electoral system is just one of a number of formidable barriers to entry – that conundrum will surely count as a nice problem for the Reform leadership to have.
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