Survival plan: is Rishi ready for the rebels?

Ever since Rishi Sunak became leader of the Conservative party, he has been preparing for this week. Entering 10 Downing Street without winning a general election or even the Tory membership vote, he owes his position entirely to Conservative MPs. At any moment, they could decide to replace him as they did Boris Johnson. This bank holiday weekend, as the results of the May elections roll in, has always had the potential to be his moment of greatest vulnerability.

The results will show how the Tories are performing now compared with the local elections of 2021 when a triumphal 30ft giant-sized Boris balloon in Hartlepool came to symbolise his political dominance. At the time, Johnson had led Europe in the vaccine rollout and the Tories were ten percentage points ahead in the opinion polls; a lead reflected in the local results. Now, the Conservatives are 20 points behind – the biggest lag for a governing party in any recent election year. The electoral implications have been obvious for some time, as has the delicate psychological state of the Tory party. That’s why Sunak has been building his defence.

In general elections, the result is clear in a few hours. But the Cameron-era enthusiasm for devolution means that local election agonies are drawn out over days. Some 2,600 council seats will vote and the Tories are predicted to lose half of the 1,000 seats they are defending.

Then come elections for the London Mayor (‘We’ll do better than people think here,’ insists a Tory staffer); for 37 police and crime commissioners (30 of whom are currently Tories); and for nine ‘metro-mayors’.