The Royal Navy has traditionally been the mainstay of Britain’s military power on the global stage. It is approaching its 500th anniversary, when Henry VIII established the ‘Navy Royal’ in 1546, a standing maritime force with its own dockyards and secretariat, the Navy Board. As this year’s Strategic Defence Review made clear, it remains vital for the protection of the United Kingdom, the defence of the wider Euro-Atlantic area and Britain’s ability to project power across the globe.
To do that, the Royal Navy has to be strengthened and modernised. On Monday, the First Sea Lord, General Sir Gwyn Jenkins – the first Royal Marines officer to serve as professional head of the navy – gave a speech at the International Sea Power Conference in which he announced an ambitious high-tech programme, Atlantic Bastion. This will integrate autonomous vessels (maritime drones, in other words) and AI with the Royal Navy’s conventional warships in a ‘highly advanced hybrid force’ to protect British interests and infrastructure in the North Atlantic.
It might be true to say we are not currently at war with Russia, but we are not at peace either, and it is Russia which is clearly and explicitly identified as the principal threat in the North Atlantic. A great deal of attention has been focused recently on the undersea pipelines and cables which connect the UK to the rest of the world; in September, parliament’s joint committee on the national security strategy published a report examining the resilience and crisis preparedness of this network.
The UK defence sector is one of the most advanced in the world
The cable network is a major vulnerability, carrying 99 per cent of our data traffic, forming the backbone of our economy and allowing vital services to operate. Lord Hutton, the former Labour Defence Secretary who sits on the joint committee, said recently:
Undersea cables are now the most important part of our national infrastructure. Without them, we’d be propelled back almost into the dark ages. The fundamentals of national life today would be at risk – how our health service operates, how our banking system operates.
Russian naval vessels have been deployed near key parts of the network repeatedly over the last few years. Most recently, the intelligence collection ship Yantar, which is operated by the Russian navy’s main directorate of deep-sea research and carries autonomous underwater vehicles with cable-cutting equipment, has been seen in or near UK territorial waters on several occasions. Last month it was being monitored off the north coast of Scotland by a Royal Navy frigate and an RAF P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft when the crew directed non-lethal lasers at the pilots of the aircraft. Defence Secretary John Healey condemned the Russian action as ‘deeply dangerous’.
This is a direct challenge with high stakes, and Atlantic Bastion is part of the UK’s response. Although still at an early stage, the Royal Navy plans to use this combination of warships, aircraft, sensors and ‘cutting-edge digital infrastructure’ to detect and monitor Russian activity. It will also allow the Royal Navy, if necessary, to take action against aggressive or hostile moves, though the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is reticent on the exact rules of engagement.
A great deal is being staked on the advanced technology involved in making Atlantic Bastion work. This is not just about improving the Royal Navy’s capability and the speed of decision-making but sending a signal. The First Sea Lord has described Atlantic Bastion as ‘our bold new approach to secure the underwater battlespace against a modernising Russia’, while Healey framed its purpose as being to ‘detect, deter and defeat those who threaten us’. In effect, the government wants Russia to know it understands the threat and is taking steps to meet it.
This new technology is undoubtedly impressive, but everything relies on resources. The Royal Navy is badly overstretched (although Jenkins will admit only to ‘stretched’): it has six Type 45 destroyers and seven Type 23 frigates, the latter now ageing; of its five Astute-class attack submarines, it is believed no more than one or two are capable of deployment due to a backlog of maintenance and repairs. Meanwhile, the RAF only has nine Poseidon patrol aircraft to cover a vast area and range of tasks.
The government trumpets ‘combined MoD/industry seedcorn investment of £14 million’ in Atlantic Bastion this year, but that is a tiny amount (the NHS costs £21 million every hour). Despite the encouraging sounds made by Sir Keir Starmer, defence spending will only rise by around 0.2 per cent by 2027, barely plugging the gaping holes in the MoD’s current equipment plan. Some procurement may actually need to be cut. Jenkins has said that half a billion pounds has been invested in the technology involved in the demonstrators for Atlantic Bastion, so what will the overall cost of the programme be?
The UK defence sector is one of the most advanced in the world. But cutting-edge technology is useless unless it is capable, deployed and effective, and that costs money. Ignore MoD press releases and Downing Street statements, because Vladimir Putin certainly will. How much will Atlantic Bastion cost, where is the money coming from and when will it be operational? Those are the questions that matter.
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