Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Could Le Pen snatch victory from Macron?

When the attacks commence it’s clear that Marine Le Pen’s enemies are unnerved. For months – actually make that five years – few have viewed the leader of the National Rally as a serious contender for the 2022 presidential election. I include myself among that number, having declared on Coffee House in September 2017 that Le Pen ‘has no future’. More fool me. Along with many others, I underestimated her tenacity, her resilience and her sheer bloody-mindedness in refusing to throw in the towel.

Will her stubbornness be rewarded with a win against all expectation? There is gathering optimism in Le Pen’s camp that a political earthquake will be felt in France next month.

Recent polls have detected a momentum shift. Support for Macron is down from 33.5 to 27 per cent and for Le Pen it’s up from 16 to 21 per cent. That’s still some ground to make up but Le Pen and her supporters are campaigning furiously to win over the millions who can’t decide if they can be bothered to go to the polling booth on 10 April.

Le Pen was in Guadeloupe at the weekend and on leaving a television studio she and her entourage were set upon by a mob of left-wing protestors. It was an ugly incident, one condemned by Macron, but it may ultimately benefit Le Pen, winning over the undecided who will regard a vote for her as a vote against the bully-boy tactics of some of those on the left.

There is gathering optimism in Le Pen’s camp that a political earthquake will be felt in France next month

Macron meanwhile is suffering from his indifference to the election campaign. His energy in the last month has been focused solely on events in Ukraine, and while his shuttle diplomacy initially won plaudits, his standing is now on the wane as people realise that for all his grandstanding his influence was negligible.

Macron’s team are worried that his remoteness might backfire, serving to reinforce the perception of a president who is insufferably arrogant.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Gavin Mortimer
Written by
Gavin Mortimer

Gavin Mortimer is a British author who lives in Burgundy after many years in Paris. He writes about French politics, terrorism and sport.

Topics in this article

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in