I’m still sceptical about the idea of Brown going to the country in 2009, but Martin Bright lays out one potential, and plausible, route to an ‘09 election in his New Statesman column:
It just so happens that, in April, the UK will be taking its turn at the presidency of the G20 group of world leaders, which means this country will be the venue for the next global economic summit. Brown will therefore be hosting Barack Obama on one of the first foreign trips of his presidency. Fortuitous timing indeed, with a possible snap May election to follow.
As one former cabinet minister who spent a long time at the Treasury told the New Statesman: “Gordon has to get the Obama visit out of the way then call an election. There really is no other option.”
The thinking is that at Watford Brown can pose both as the man leading the world through the economic storm and as Barack’s new best friend. But, and this is the good news for the Tories, these goals might be incompatible. At any summit in the first six months of his presidency, Obama is going to be the rock star. Whatever comes out of it is going to be known as the Obama plan and the headlines are going to concentrate on his role.
Brown has adeptly persuaded most of the British media that he has filled the international leadership vacuum that has existed during this crisis because of Bush’s lame-duck status. (For a reality check on this claim it is always worth reading the New York Times after these summits where Brown is meant to have shown a grateful world what to do, you’ll generally find that Brown’s role was nowhere near as large as suggested.) But once Obama is installed in the Oval Office, this honeymoon will be over for Brown. It will be Obama who is the clear global leader; the man with the plan and receiving the plaudits. His arrival on the scene will finally rumble Brown’s attempt to portray himself as the saviour of the world financial system.
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