As Gordon Brown says, Britain is indeed “leading the world” – but into recession, a property market collapse and soaring unemployment. This—not the stock market indices which mesmerise a bewildered House of Commons—is what matters.
Take today’s inflation data – it shows a 30 percent rise in electricity prices, 40 percent for fuel prices and 50 percent for gas prices. And that’s before the winter sets in and everyone puts their central heating on. Food inflation is 13 percent and within that meat is up 20 percent.
Globalisation continues to push down the costs of imports in relative terms, so overall CPI inflation is 5 percent. But those who have to set aside a large share of their budget for food and heating will be experiencing double-digit inflation.
Property is already down by 14 percent and today’s bleak RICS survey suggests this fall is accelerating. All this at a time when redundancies are running at 1,500 a day and unemployment could reach 6.3 percent by the end of next year.
This is the real economy – and a reminder how misplaced Gordon Brown’s recent outburst of joy is. There is nothing, anywhere, to smile about.
UPDATE – Apologies for startling CoffeeHousers. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecast to which I referred – in the Treasury’s monthly forecast collation – was unemployment of 6.3 percent – not million. But given that we have 5.2 million on benefits as of February and unemployment since then is rising at the fastest rate in 16 years the figure may not be far short of six million by the end of next year.
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