What is going on in the Tory leadership contest? On Tuesday evening, it looked as though James Cleverly was on the up. Following an impressive outing at Conservative party conference, the former foreign secretary had become the bookies’ favourite and in Tuesday’s knockout round secured the highest number of MP backers at 39 votes. However, in a move that has led to shock in the Tory party, he has just been knocked out of the race. In the final knock-out round of the contest, Cleverly only managed 37 votes to Kemi Badenoch on 42 votes and Robert Jenrick on 41.
It’s worth noting that the vote is anonymous
It means that Jenrick and Badenoch will be the two candidates to go to the membership vote. This is in some ways unsurprising: when the contest was first called, it was viewed to be a two horse race between them. However, since party conference it had increasingly looked as though Badenoch could be pushed out and prevented from reaching the final two. Last night, some wondered if Jenrick – previously the frontrunner – could be edged out given he had technically lost two votes since the previous round.
So, what is behind the range of ballot results? It’s worth noting that the vote is anonymous. It means MPs can easily change their mind and vote for someone they have not backed publicly. There’s also always a risk of game-playing – supporters from one camp ‘lending’ their vote to the candidate they see as less of a threat to try to even the playing field. Or as one Tory strategist put it soon after the result: ‘No amount of briefing, strategy or campaigning can account for the sheer duplicity and scheming of Conservative MPs.’
For what it’s worth, there are currently two theories doing the rounds among MPs. The first is that Team Cleverly attempted vote lending to have a preferred opponent in the final two and it spectacularly backfired. The other theory is that the vote lending took place on Tuesday – with some Jenrick supporters trying to boost Cleverly to hurt Badenoch – only it went wrong, when Jenrick actually went back two. Therefore they had to consolidate today. In truth, no-one will really ever know what happened in the secret ballot – but the numbers suggest either game-playing or a new level of indecisiveness among Tory MPs.
As for what comes next, Badenoch and Jenrick have just under a month to woo the membership. Both candidates are on the right of the party – though vary in some positions. Jenrick is advocating for leaving the ECHR whereas Badenoch has suggested other options should be considered. They will now focus their efforts on various hustings along with frequent visits to conservative associations. Right now, Badenoch has the upper hand – the vast majority of membership polling to date has put her ahead of Jenrick. However, Jenrick’s supporters hope that Badenoch will prove a live wire and he will be able to narrow the gap. The contest so far has been surprising and hard to predict. Expect more of that – the final result is still far from a done deal.
Cindy Yu talks to Katy Balls and Michael Gove on the latest Coffee House Shots:
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