Peter Hoskin

Keener to have an election, but less keen to vote

Ok, so what to make of the latest Populus poll?  Here are the headline figures:

Conservatives — 39 percent (unchanged from a poll 10 days ago)
Labour — 27 percent (up 1)
Lib Dems — 17 percent (down 5)

I imagine CCHQ will be slightly pleased and slightly concerned, but not by much either way.  The 12 point lead isn’t to be sniffed at, and an unchanged position from 10 days ago is far from nightmarish.  But the Tories are below that magic 40 percent mark again, and they might have expected a little more buoyancy given Cameron’s assured response to the expenses scandal.  

But what about the Lib Dems, down 5 percent?  Poll king Anthony Wells sets out his theories here.  But I rather suspect we’re seeing a bit of volatility.  And that we’ll have a clearer picture of the True State of Things in the aftermath of the June elections.

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