There’s an old newspaper adage that “If it bleeds, it leads” that helps explain the current obsession with knife crime. But there’s another old truth that it would be useful to remember: news, almost by definition, is defined by what is rare and unusual, not what is common. The more coverage an event or pattern receives, the more exceptional it is likely to be.
There was a knife crime “summit” at the Scottish parliament today at which John Muir, whose son Damian was stabbed to death in Greenock in 2007, called for mandatory jail sentences for anyone caught carrying a knife:
Mr Muir’s anger is understandable and arguing against a victim’s family is never a particularly pleasant experience. Nonetheless, facts remain stubborn things. 114 people were murdered in Scotland in 2007-08, of whom 55 were killed by a “sharp instrument”. In 2003-04, by comparison, there were 108 murders and, again, 55 were committed using sharp instruments. Not great, perhaps, but on the face of it, hardly an out of control epidemic either. And of course these figures are so low that even a small increase in actual murders results in an eye-popping percentage increase. (Granted, Glasgow has a higher murder rate than most European cities and one that is on a par with the United States as a whole. Then again, at least in 2000-2002 the same could be said of Belfast. Nevertheless there are more murders each year in Washington DC, population circa 500,000, than in the whole of Scotland. So the problem, while real, may not be quite as severe as it is made out to be. That, mind you, is also why murders rarely make the front page of the Washington Post. See above for the correlation between an events’ rarity and its news value.)Mr Muir, 69, said his son’s death was one of “the shameful violent statistics which have blighted the Scottish nation for decades”. And he claimed there had been “a very nearly criminal institutional failure” to tackle the problem of knife crime. He added: “That failure is borne by the frequency of the disgraceful statistics which shame Scotland. “However, the statistics are real people. All and every one of the statistics represents a real victim and a person whose life has been taken or shattered, as well as their families and friends.”
In England and Wales, according to the British Crime Survey, knives were used in 6% of violent incidents, and 19% of “serious violent incidents” (lower figures than for police recorded crime because the BCS is based upon a “much wider range of violent offences.”) According to the Offending Crime and Justice Survey of 10-25 year-olds just 3% of 10-25 year-olds had carried a knife to protect themselves in the past 12 months and 54% reported only doing so once or twice. In 46% of cases the knife being carried was a pen-knife.
Now perhaps the statistics are wrong. Perhaps they are being corrupted or juked. But if they’re not then it’s hard to see that there is, in fact, a knife epidemic. That’s no consolation, of course, to the victims and their families. But it ought to make politicians think twice before endorsing the (terrible) idea of mandatory minimum sentences for knife-related crime or for proposing that anyone accused of a knife-related crime should be denied bail.
So, yes, again there is a problem. But no, that problem doesn’t seem as great as media coverage might have one believe,
Standard Crime-Related Disclaimer: Obviously, it’s easier to take a broader view of these matters from the seclusion of the Yarrow Valley than it might be if I lived in Brixton or Paisley or Liverpool.
UPDATE: Aaargh. This makes for unfortunate timing, but it doesn’t change the underlying reality. I think.
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